The NCAA men’s basketball tournament is down to four teams.
In a lot of ways, this was the kind of Final Four that many would’ve predicted. Three of the four top seeds are in and the only outlier—if you can even call it that—is a 7 seed in Michigan State that isn’t lacking in big game experience.
There are no Cinderellas in this dance, folks.
We literally have six days to pour through every nook and cranny of Michigan State – Duke and Wisconsin – Kentucky, examine every angle, and see how the spread moves from here until Saturday night. One thing you can count on is that there’s going to be a ton of betting action on these two games.
The Michigan State–Duke game may not have the same on-court expectations as Wisconsin–Kentucky, but basketball purists will no doubt look at this game as the more compelling one of the two. That’s what happens when you have two of the greatest college basketball coaches on opposing sidelines. Mike Krzyzewski and Tom Izzo are pillars of college basketball and you can bet your pink slips that both will have their boys ready to play the biggest game of their lives this coming Saturday.
Don’t be persuaded this early with Duke opening as -5.5 favorites against Michigan State. That line is going to trend downward, especially since a lot of the early action has been on the Spartans. It’s a tricky game to predict and I won’t do it until the end of the week, but rest assured, there will be plenty of bettors looking to get the best price on this game, and that’s unlikely to happen until the last few days before the game.
On the flip side, the Wisconsin–Kentucky game seems like a dead throwaway, especially the curiosity of the Wildcats, heavy favorites to win the tournament from the beginning, are only -5 favorites against its fellow one seed. But from the onset, this feels like a prisoner-of-the-moment spread. So Kentucky struggled against Notre Dame, barely beating them 68-62, and now they’re just five-point favorites? Is five points really what separates these two teams?
If you’ve been waving the Wildcats flag throughout the tourney, now seems like a good time to bet on Kentucky because that spread will probably go up one or two points as the week moves along. On the flip side, betting on Wisconsin will probably be better served if you hold off for a few days and see where the number goes. If the spread goes up, then you have more points on your side. If it goes down, well, I wouldn’t count on it moving anywhere under 4 points.
Can you imagine the can of worms being opened up with the Wildcats only laying 4 or less points?
Whatever happens from now until Saturday, what’s important is that we’re getting two incredible match-ups in the Final Four. That hasn’t always been the case in recent years so savor these games while you can.