Election Odds: How sportsbooks will decide, and perform, this US election

We’re in the final rounds of this U.S. presidential election, and it’s looking to be a big one. As President Donald Trump fights and scrapes to retain the White House, Joe Biden and his allies are doing everything they can to get him out.

With less than two weeks to go until voting ends, a debate this upcoming Thursday, and a record-breaking Twitch stream from a couple of congresswomen, there’s a lot going on. And there might be even more to come if this debate ends up being a close one. To understand what’s happening, we spoke with our sources at Bodog to see just how big a betting election this would be.

The biggest betting election ever?

According to our man at Bodog, they are seeing all-time high volume for a political event, tripling what they saw for the 2016 election. We asked them how this compares to sporting events of the recent past. “It has potential to be up there with McGregor/Mayweather,” they answered. “Betting on each state, popular vote, senate control have each taken 6 figures in bets – this only occurred by election night in 2016.”

With the odds closer at Bodog than many other books, and closer than the polls indicate they should be, our source confirmed that they are seeing disproportionate action on a Trump win. “We’ve taken 2:1 Trump money so far despite being much lower on him than the market place. As of this writing Trump is +125 with us but he’s +153 at Pinnacle and +166 at Betfair.”

With interest being so high, we asked if this was being considered as an appetizer; a tool to bring in customers who may bet on other things. “Oh for sure and I think back in 2008, or whenever we first started offering this, that’s how we treated Politics – as an exotic to convert players and not something to try and profit,” they answered. But the level of interest, and the circumstances of 2020, may have changed that thinking. “If we’re going to go through the trouble of putting this stuff up, let’s actually let people bet into it and double down on how we handicap it.”

Could election betting expand?

That made us wonder, is there a chance we might see a broader menu of political wagering options in the future, like for other countries or smaller elections? They were not very optimistic. “We’ve done Canadian elections before but there wasn’t much engagement,” they said. “This happened with the backdrop of COVID and, between March and late July. While the world is interested and consumed so many things American, our primarily US-based players aren’t that interested in much outside their borders.”

How will the election be called for wagering purposes?

Bodog is playing it a bit by ear, as it turns out. On election night, if the major networks confidently call the election one way or another, specially at the state level, Bodog will grade bets that way. But if it’s a close race, they will wait. “As much as the media will race to be the first to call it, any early settlement on our end would create massive issues,” they said. “If there’s nothing clear then we’ll wait until it is, even if that means waiting for the courts.”

Election betting tips from the bookie

Finally, we asked how they expect this election to play out for the final two weeks, and if they had any advice:

“I think we’ll continue to see Trump money right up until polls close,” they said. “As to what I think will happen? Goodness, who knows. Biden is doing well in the polls but the concept of the shy/quiet Trump voter isn’t something that I think can be completely discounted. Nate Silver has Biden 86% to win now. He only had Hillary around 71% this far out.

I think Trump will outperform his current polling but if Biden’s up 5 or more points before election day, then that’ll do it. If you believe all of that, Biden is a pretty good bet right now.”

They did caution however that there could still be an October surprise to upset the balance of everything, but that exhaustion and disapproval with Trump’s presidency might just be too much to ignore.

Who do the sportsbooks want to win?

Our sources also let us know that, just like in 2016, Bodog is looking to make some money should Biden win the presidency, as there’s just so much money on a Trump win with the book. That’s not the case with all sportsbooks, as BetOnline is hoping for a Trump win based on the action they’re seeing, and MyBookie has balanced the action just enough to be looking at a profit regardless of what happens.

AOC and Ilhan Omar are sus

Looking to help Biden and so many gamblers win their bets was Congresswomen Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez and Ilhan Omar, who took to Twitch on Tuesday night for their first ever games of Among Us. The two played as crewmates and imposters in an effort to get out the vote before election day.

The duo played with some of Twitch’s biggest streamers, routinely reminding their audience of approximately 500,000 to make sure their vote is counted for election day.

If the stream is to be believed, potential future presidential candidate AOC couldn’t lie for shit, routinely doing a terrible job as the imposter, despite a couple of fun kills:

Ilhan Omar, on the other hand, was coldblooded.

Thursday Debate Odds

Before we settle bets or even count votes, there’s the matter of this Thursday’s debate. Donald Trump and Joe Biden will go for another 90 minutes of verbal sparring, hopefully with less interruptions this time. Bodog has once again prepared some fun debate odds that you can bet on, or just follow along for fun as the two argue about the future of the United States.

What Type of Pattern will Donald Trump’s Tie Be?

Solid-160
Striped+200
Dotted+1000
Other Geometric Pattern / Novelty+1200
Tartan, Checkers or Plaid+1600
Paisley or Floral+2500

What Type of Pattern will Joe Biden’s Tie Be?

Striped+225
Solid+275
Dotted+325
Other Geometric Pattern / Novelty+400
Tartan, Checkers or Plaid+750
Paisley or Floral+1200

What Color will Donald Trump’s Tie Be?

Red (Includes: Maroon & Burgundy)-150
Light Blue+350
Blue or Navy Blue+400
Other+900
Yellow or Gold+1200

What Color Will Joe Biden’s Tie Be?

Blue or Navy Blue+200
Light Blue+250
Red (Includes: Maroon & Burgundy)+250
Other+600
Purple+800

What Will Trump Say First?

Sleepy Joe-275
Phoney Kamala+200

What Will Trump Say First?

Fake News-150
China Virus+115

What will be said First by Trump or Biden?

Affordable Care Act-135
Pre-Existing+105

Which Event Will Have A Higher Nielsen Rating?

First Debate-340
Second Debate+240

Which State Will Be Mentioned First?

Pennsylvania+400
Arizona+500
Florida+500
Georgia+550
Michigan+600
North Carolina+600
Wisconsin+600
Minnesota+650

Which Topic Will Be Debated First?

Fighting Covid-19+170
National Security+325
American Families+400
Race in America+550
Climate Change+700
Leadership+725

Who Will Take the First Sip of Water?

Joe Biden-165
Donald Trump+125

Who Will Win the Presidential Debate Drinking Game

Donald Trump-125
Joe Biden-105

Whos Microphone Will be Muted First?

Donald Trump-275
Joe Biden+200

Will Donald Trump Mention Joe Rogan?

Yes+550
No-1000

Will Hong Kong Be Mentioned During the Debate?

Yes-130
NoEven

Will the First Lady and Donald Trump Share an Embrace After the Debate?

Yes+200
No-275

Will Trump or Biden Curse On-Air?

No-4000
Yes+1000

Will Either Candidate Mention “Twitter” During the Debate?

Yes+120
No-160

Will The Armenia-Azerbaijan Conflict Be Mentioned During The Debate?

Yes+200
No-275

U.S. Presiential Election 2020 – Odds to Win

Joe Biden-165
Donald Trump+125