U.S. President Donald Trump has finally conceded the 2020 election, admitting that a transition to a new administration will happen in just under 2 weeks. But after the events of January 6, when Trump supporters barged into the U.S. Capitol, will Trump last until the next inauguration?
Betting markets offering lines on if Trump would finish his term reacted sharply after the riots of January 6. With Democrats calling for another impeachment, and reportedly some Cabinet members whispering about invoking the 25th amendment to install Mike Pence as Acting President, PredictIt prices for Trump finishing his term went from $0.90 to $0.74 on the day of the action. Prices for Resignation, which were at a 30-day low of $0.06 just a week ago, spiked to $0.15 on the same day.
Although his initial tone on January 6 was definitely bellicose, he’d backed off that messaging when it became just how terrible the day was going to be, telling his supporters to go home. That didn’t stop Democrats from calling for impeachment, or several of his cabinet members from resigning, disgusted with the events of the day. By January 7, he was forced to provide his video of concession, admitting that some kind of new administration would begin on January 20 (but not naming Joe Biden as the President elect).
Although both houses of congress are currently returning home ahead of the January 20 inauguration, Democratic leaders have promised impeachment if Trump isn’t removed from office. Republicans, who for four years have suggested any impeachment talks were probably inspired by hoaxes, are starting to come on board to the idea. Some are publicly voicing their support for the 25th amendment to avoid the lengthy impeachment process entirely, but if Trump’s cabinet resigns rather than removing him, who knows if that could work.
Impeachment doesn’t require Republican support, as House Speaker Nancy Pelosi probably has enough votes to get the job. Predictit’s current price for Impeachment to succeed is $0.65, suggesting its more likely than not to happen. Trump is still favored to finish his term with a price of $0.80, suggestion conviction by the senate, or the 25th amendment removing Trump, is unlikely. Even less likely is a resignation, currently priced at $0.16, although those odds are steadily increasing.
Finally, on a related note, odds of a self-pardon by Trump have jumped significantly, from $0.36 on the morning of January 6 to a current all-time high of $0.57.
