I’ve certainly been complaining a lot about this season, but that’s mostly because it’s been insanely unpredictable from a betting standpoint. The thing I do like is the amount of new blood in the playoff scene. Dallas, Tampa, Oakland, Detroit and even Tennessee? This is great stuff. Let’s try to make sense of it all after another week of mayhem and carnage.
1. New England Patriots (11-2 SU and 10-3 ATS)
Dropping 30 points on the league’s top rated defence is one thing, especially since the most Baltimore had previously allowed was 28 (vs. Oakland) and 27 (at Dallas). The only reason the game against Baltimore was remotely close is because of two botched special team plays. That’s probably the easiest thing to fix. No team looked outright better overall than the Patriots this past week, which is why they return to number one overall in my books. Plus they’ve been slaying the spread lately.
Next Game: New England -3.0 at Denver
2. Kansas City Chiefs (10-3 SU and 7-6 ATS)
I don’t trust many teams in the NFL the way I faithfully back the Kansas City Chiefs. Their defence creates turnovers and their special teams can score touchdowns. Alex Smith and the offence have responded to pressure in pretty much every game outside of a tough loss to Tampa. Oh, and they’re 6-3 ATS in their last nine games overall which is pretty damn good compared to the rest of the league.
Next Game: Tennessee at Kansas City -5.5
3. Dallas Cowboys (11-2 SU and 9-4 ATS)
I’M TELLING YOU, MIKE, THE ROOKIE WALL IS REAL AND I’M GONNA TALK ABOUT IT REALLY LOUDLY ALL WEEK!!!!
Next Game: Tampa at Dallas -7.0 (Sunday Night)
4. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (8-5 SU and ATS)
For years Tampa made big splashes with secondary superstars that went bust. And this year, their biggest grab was Brent Grimes and they’re tied for first in total turnovers, and second in interceptions? Seriously, 2016, what is going on with you?
Next Game: Tampa at Dallas -7.0 (Sunday Night)
5. Oakland Raiders (10-3 SU and 8-5 ATS)
The storybook ending is that the Raiders exorcise two playoff demons from their past on route to their first championship since 1983. That means beating Kansas City in the post season after losing to them twice in regular season play, overcoming Tom Brady and the Shadow of the Tuck Rule only to throttle Tampa for the championship and avenge the Gruden Bowl. The nightmare ending is none of that happening…and the team moving to Las Vegas. And all this is hinging on Derek Carr’s freaking pinky finger. I love sports!
Next Game: Oakland -3.0 at San Diego
6. Detroit Lions (9-4 SU and 8-5 ATS)
It’s about time the Lions got some top-10 recognition. Long term I’m not at all thrilled at the prospect of a team with no discernable rushing game being a real threat in the playoffs. But then again, nothing makes sense this year.
Next Game: Detroit at NYG -4.5
7. Pittsburgh Steelers (8-5 SU and ATS)
How quickly do you think Ben Roethlisberger and Pittsburgh’s equipment managers immediately threw their cell phones in to a volcano the second they heard the words “deflategate”?
Next Game: Pittsburgh -3.0 at Cincinnati
8. New York Giants (9-4 SU and 7-5-1 ATS)
I alluded to it waaaaay back at the beginning of the season, but everyone who plays the Giants basically has their ugliest performance of the season. It’s happened too frequently to be a coincidence. Even weirder: they did it to Dallas in prime time without JPP. And now they get Detroit with a fingerless Matthew Stafford.
Next Game: Detroit at NYG -4.5
9. Green Bay Packers (7-6 SU and 7-5-1 ATS)
Aaron Rodgers has averaged 279.8 yards per game while totaling 10 touchdowns (or 2.5 TD’s per game) and 0 interceptions over the last month while his team has gone 3-1 SU and ATS. Prior to that he averaged 267.8 yards and 2.4 TD’s along with 0.8 picks per game and his team went 4-5 SU and 4-3-1 ATS. All I’m saying is that Rodgers was never really the problem.
Next Game: Green Bay -6.5 at Chicago
10. Washington Redskins (7-5-1 SU and 9-4 ATS)
There’s nothing like the smell of a DeSean Jackson Revenge Game in the morning. I’m just guessing that the Josh Norman Reveng Game smells a lot worse.
Next Game: Carolina at Washington -4.5 (Monday Night)
11. Atlanta Falcons (8-5 SU and ATS)
I really don’t want to have to buy in on the Falcons, but you sort of have to when they’re getting the biggest spread of the weekend against one of the worst teams in existence.
Next Game: San Francisco at Atlanta -13.5
12. Denver Broncos (8-5 SU and ATS)
Listen, I’m just not scared of a team that’s got a first year quarterback who looks completely lost and a team that’s running a sixth string quarterback they found at a truck stop on the way to an away game.
Next Game: New England -3.0 at Denver
13. Seattle Seahawks (8-4-1 Su and 7-6 ATS)
I love it when teams like Seattle say they “needed a wake up call” after taking a serious beating. There’s no trick to this – the Seahawks can’t travel. They beat the Rams by 9-3, beat the woeful Jets in Week 4 before we knew for sure that the Jets were terrible and then tied (TIED!) Arizona 6-6. That was followed by a 20-25 loss to New Orleans, a narrow win at New England and two brutal games on the road against Tampa and now Green Bay. The good news: Seattle’s last road game is in Week 17…against San Francisco.
Next Game: Los Angeles at Seattle -15.0
14. Tennessee Titans (7-6 SU and 5-8 ATS)
I am getting more and more excited for Good Guy Marcus Mariota to take on America’s Least Favorite Quarterback (Osweiler) in Week 17 for the division title. And yes, this is way too high for the 5-8 ATS Titans. I just like them.
Next Game: Tennessee at Kansas City -5.5
15. Baltimore Ravens (7-6 SU and 6-7 ATS)
If you’re praying for good football, then you hope that Pittsburgh makes the playoffs. If you’re in the AFC playoffs, you’re begging for Baltimore to show up because holy hell they just aren’t very good.
Next Game: Philadelphia at Baltimore -6.0
16. Minnesota Vikings (7-6 SU and 8-5 ATS)
Can someone please put the Minnesota Vikings out of their misery? They lost Bridgewater, Peterson, a great offensive coordinator in Nor Turner and have had to suffer through Sam Bradford and Matt Asiata all year long. And their fans are still clinging to a playoff hope that was built on what they did in the first eight weeks of the season. Pull the plug. Someone. Please! This is inhumane! OH FOR THE LOVE OF GOD THEY’RE PLAYING INDY?!
Next Game: Indianapolis at Minnesota -4.0
17. San Diego Chargers (5-8 SU and 7-6 ATS)
If Melvin Gordon isn’t playing, I’m probably not going to bet with the Chargers but man if there was ever a time for Phil Rivers to go in to ballistic dream wrecker mode, it’s in this last three weeks when he can put a dent in Oakland’s playoff seeding, keep Cleveland buried in a winless record and go out blazing against the Chiefs just for giggles.
Next Game: Oakland -3.0 at San Diego
18. New Orleans Saints (5-8 SU and 8-5 ATS)
Drew Brees looks flat out exhausted. Granted, he’s gone up against two good teams in the last two weeks, but it’s been seven seasons since he went with back-to-back games of zero touchdowns. It’s now only happened three times in his entire career. And just in time for the fantasy playoffs!
Next Game: New Orleans at Arizona -2.5
19. Houston Texans (7-6 SU and 6-6-1 ATS)
And like Atlanta, you sort of have to bet on a team you don’t trust because they’re playing a team in Week 15 you trust even less.
Next Game: Jacksonville at Houston -6.0
20. Cincinnati Bengals (5-7-1 SU and 5-8 ATS)
One thing I will always admire about Cincinnati under Marvin Lewis is how proud they are. Too many teams embrace mass turnover and tanking, sometimes rightfully and other times wrongfully. But Cincinnati (and Baltimore) have been a steadfast reminder in keeping things constant and that’s why the Bengals have found resolve with little to no hope for the playoffs. Do not count them out against Pittsburgh, Houston or Baltimore in the next three weeks. They could be the biggest spoilers of the home stretch.
Next Game: Pittsburgh -3.0 at Cincinnati
21. Indianapolis Colts (6-7 SU and 6-6-1 ATS)
The best news Colts fans have heard all week is that you can fire a coach your team just recently extended. Chuck, everyone likes you as a person but you and GM Ryan Grigson have one of the best quarterbacks in the league and are completely crapping in a bucket. It’s inexcusable.
Next Game: Indianapolis at Minnesota -4.0
22. Philadelphia Eagles (5-8 SU and ATS)
Remember how excited the world got about Carson Wentz and Jarod Goff? We’re done with the hype about Round 1 of the NFL Draft now, right? PLEASE?!
Next Game: Philadelphia at Baltimore -6.0
23. Miami Dolphins (8-5 SU and 7-6 ATS)
The Dolphins and Adam Gase were probably hoping that Ryan Tannehill tore his knee to shreds so they could bench him. Now that it’s just a (legitimately serious) sprain…they’re probably still going to bench him. They should probably bench him even if he’s perfectly healthy. The good news is that his dead cap hit next year splits by more than half from $22 million to $10.4 million. He’s cut-able, tradable and unlikeable all in one. A real triple threat.
Next Game: Miami -2.5 at NYJ
24. Carolina Panthers (5-8 and 4-8-1 ATS)
If any team knows how to take advantage of Josh Norman’s weaknesses, it’s probably the team that didn’t bother spending money on him with the franchise tag or a contract extension after he was a Defensive Player of the Year candidate.
Next Game: Carolina at Washington -4.5 (Monday Night)
25. Arizona Cardinals (5-7-1 SU and 4-9 ATS)
Bruce Arians on his players being motivated for the last three games despite already being knocked out of the playoffs: “If you see guys cashing it in, you need to get rid of them.” God bless this man.
Next Game: New Orleans at Arizona -2.5
26. Buffalo Bills (6-7 SU and 5-8 ATS)
“Hey Ryan, you wanna come work with me in Buffalo this year?”
“Damn right I do, brother Rex! What’s the worst that could happen?”
“Heh, I know! It’ll be great!”
Next Game: Cleveland at Buffalo -10.0
27. Los Angeles Rams (4-9 SU and 4-8-1 ATS)
If you look at Jeff Fisher’s body of work in 2016, then you can actually make a case that he was trying to get fired. He wouldn’t start Jarod Goff, and instead trotted out Case Keenum for three months. Gurley got buried as an option despite (maybe) being the most talented back in the NFL. He didn’t know who was on the Patriots when they played them, and blamed two former Rams (Tre Mason and Stedman Bailey) for their struggles. And he started a war of egos with one of the most famous players in franchise history just for kicks. It’s no wonder that the Rams won’t release information about his contract because the guarantees must’ve been gargantuan for Fisher.
Next Game: Los Angeles at Seattle -15.0
28. New York Jets (4-9 SU and 5-8 ATS)
It was more of a joke earlier in the year, but after seeing how bad Bryce Petty is, the Jets are a lot closer to reuniting Jay Cutler with B-Marsh and Matt Forte than they really need to be.
Next Game: Miami -2.5 at NYJ
29. Chicago Bears (3-10 SU and 6-7 ATS)
Congrats on Matt Barkley, Chicago. Go ahead and get used to him.
Next Game: Green Bay -6.5 at Chicago
30. Jacksonville Jaguars (2-11 SU and 5-8 ATS)
Do not feel sorry for Blake Bortles. He had his chance, and made $17 million in the process. Thanks for the nightmares, Bortles. I can’t wait for your new career as a Youtube Prankster where you go around throwing watermelons at unsuspecting victims only to scream at them “YOU JUST GOT BORTLED!”
Next Game: Jacksonville at Houston -6.0
31. San Francisco 49ers (1-12 SU and 3-10 ATS)
It’s getting real sad that Carlos Hyde is going to waste his entire potential playing in San Francisco. He broke out for 193 yards on Sunday and nobody cared because:
a) the Niners were playing the Jets
b) the Niners lost to the Jets
c) Bilal Powell rushed for 145 yards and 2 touchdowns in that same game
Next Game: San Francisco at Atlanta -13.5
32. Cleveland Browns (0-13 SU and 2-11 ATS)
The quote from Hue Jackson that “RG3 belongs” after his performance Sunday couldn’t be truer. He belongs on the Browns. No argument here.
Next Game: Cleveland at Buffalo -10.0
