Of the 16 games in Week 15, 11 are of the divisional variety, which means that there will be a ton of “revenge game” opportunities available should you be into that sort of thing. What’s certain is that a lot f these games will have enormous playoff repercussions since we’re down to the last three weeks of the season. I want to say I know what direction to take, but considering how pathetic I’ve been picking the spread for the past couple of weeks, I might just leave it to my dog to pick this week’s games.
Niners travel to Seattle as huge underdogs
A rivalry typically means that both teams are playing at the same level. But nothing about the supposed San Francisco 49ers – Seattle Seahawks rivalry has been equal the past. Seattle’s clearly the better team and their division showdown this week reflects just how heavily favored the Seahawks are against their NFC West “rivals”. The line for this game opened at -7.5 for some books, but that number quickly rose to -9 with some now dealing the game at -10 on the side of Seattle. The resurgent play of the Hawks defense, coupled by the Niners’ imploding season, is the perfect recipe for a spread that high. But even with the one-sided results of their games against each other, I still don’t think San Francisco should be getting that many points.
Chargers are home dogs for second straight week.
The San Diego Charger are just coming off of a nine-point loss at the hands of the New England Patriots despite being 3.5-point underdogs at home. So what’s their reward? Another home game where they’re also underdogs by the same spread. This time, the Chargers will have to worry about a familiar foe in the form of Peyton Manning and the Denver Broncos. There’s a lot on the line on this game for both teams so it stands to reason that the same betting pattern unfolds like the Chargers’ game against the Broncos. Look for the line to move up to -4 on Denver and if the public keeps pounding them, it’s no far-fetched to see -4.5s closer to game time. Also, the Denver Broncos clinch the AFC West with a win on this game. Worth keeping in mind.
Cowboys-Eagles Part II
Speaking of rematches, the Dallas Cowboys and the Philadelphia Eagles meet for the second time in two weeks with plenty at stake for both teams. Both are 9-4 and whoever wins this game now has the inside track to taking the NFC East. Just like the Thanksgiving game that saw Dallas as -3.5 favorites, identical odds are now in place for this game with Philadelphia playing the role of home favorites. It’s hard to see this number moving a ton on either direction given the stakes for both teams so if I were you, I’d look at where the action is going before making my pick.
Bucs-Panthers could make a late push for the NFC South
We all know how incredibly mediocre the NFC South is this season but this stat just highlights it even more. The 2-11 Tampa Bay Bucs are mathematically still in the running to win the division. At the same time, they’re also in the running to win the the number 1 pick in next year’s draft. Yep. What the you-know-what, right? Meanwhile, the Carolina Panthers are just a game back of the Atlanta Falcons and the New Orleans Saints despite polishing a 4-8-1 record. This week, both teams could do their playoff pushes a huge favor by winning this titanic game of ineptitude. Carolina opened as -4.5 favorites and while a 2-11 team being that short of an underdog is incredibly tantalizing, let’s not get carried away with who their facing either. This line should remain as is leading up to the game, which makes picking a winner a difficult undertaking.
Falcons host Steelers
Speaking of the NFC South, the Atlanta Falcons are the co-division leaders with a 5-8 record. Fantastic, right? While they did cover against the Green Bay Packers, the Falcons’ loss still makes the NFC South up-for-grabs for all four teams. Atlanta can kick-start its push with a win against the Pittsburgh Steelers. Right now, though, it seems that faith in Atlanta isn’t where it’s supposed to be as the line opened with Pittsburgh as -1 road favorites. A line this quirky usually ends as a pick ‘em so don’t be surprised if that happens here.
Dolphins-Pats II
The Miami Dolphins are actually one of the three teams to beat New England this season so you can expect this rematch to have the makings of a New England revenge game. The opening line certainly points that out with Brady and co. as -7.5 favorites against their division rivals. It’s worth noting that their Week 1 encounter in Miami had the Pats as -4 road favorites. But Miami has proven to be a frisky, albeit inconsistent team this season. You never know which Dolphins team will show up. I’d keep a close eye on this one see if the number moves up to -8 or -8.5 for New England. Should that happen, Miami might be a good spot to take.
Colts can clinch AFC South by beating Texans
Just like the Broncos-Chargers game, the Indianapolis Colts can clinch the AFC South if they beat the Houston Texans this weekend. Doing so means that the Colts don’t have to cover the opening line spread of -6, but it wold certainly be an extra bonus for those who are looking to put money on Andrew Luck and co. The Texans are still in the AFC wild card hunt so this game is still very important to them. But even with the stakes, it’s going to be tough to do it in Indy when Houston already lost to the Colts at home in Week 6.
Is this the week we see Johnny Football?
If there ever was a revenge game worth keeping tabs on, Cincinnati’s visit to Cleveland is the one. Remember, the Browns beat the Bengals handily in Cincinnati a month ago and with the Bengals now having their full complement of players healthy, a road game against the Browns is the perfect opportunity to exact some payback. The line even opened with Cincy as the -1 road favorites. Also, keep an eye on Cleveland’s QB situation. If Johnny Manziel gets the start this week, you can bet that there will a ton of action on the Browns.
