When it’s at its best, the AFC North is one of the most compelling divisions in the NFL. You have two teams in the Pittsburgh Steelers and the Baltimore Ravens that make up one of the best rivalries in the league. You have a little brother team in the Cincinnati Bengals that have tried to shed that label for years. And you have the Cleveland Browns to always mock and/or take pity on.
When the AFC North isn’t competitive; it turns into something like this—a three-way race involving the Steelers, Ravens and Bengals, with the Browns lurking behind. It’s probably more competitive in the long run but it’s still not the same with Pittsburgh and Baltimore, who are seemingly a few levels down from their traditionally dominant selves.
What do you make of the Pittsburgh Steelers and the Baltimore Ravens?
The Steelers and the Ravens have long been the class of the AFC North but the past few years have seen some mediocre play from both teams. While I’m confident that both teams will be better, or at least more consistent, than they were a year ago, there haven’t been many positive changes on both teams to warrant anything more than simple consideration. When either Pittsburgh or Baltimore are favored, they generally receive odds below even. So it says a lot that the Steelers and Ravens, while still co-favorites together with the Cincinnati Bengals, are both at 2/1 odds to win the AFC North. It doesn’t invite the kind of confidence you normally have with both teams in previous years. That much I can tell you.
Can Andy Dalton take the next step and lead the Bengals to riches?
From a pure talent standpoint, there’s no question that the Cincinnati Bengals are the class of the AFC North. All we’re looking for now is to see that talent mesh on the field. The onus will be on quarterback Andy Dalton to live up to his new $115 million contract but the responsibility should be distributed evenly on both sides of the ball. Cincinnati is poised to repeat as AFC North champions and the 2/1 division odds certainly justifies that. But winning the division isn’t enough for the Bengals this year. They need to win a playoff game, which they haven’t done in over 20 years. The time is now Cincinnati. Dalton doesn’t need to win MVP for that to happen, even if those 150/1 odds look incredibly low for a team’s QB. FYI, Wide receiver AJ Green is 50/1 to win MVP. Not that I’m thinking of betting on the guy. It’s just a thought of throwing that out there.
Can the Cleveland Browns tune out the circus atmosphere of Johnny Manziel?
The Browns would like to but that doesn’t mean they can. You know how infesting the media circus surrounding Manziel has become when news of wide receiver Josh Gordon’s problems relegated to the back pages. Gordon is the team’s best player; he could be suspended for the year and yet everyone wants to talk about the rookie quarterback and his frequent dalliances with TMZ. Speaking of TMZ, don’t be surprised if they spend as much time as any other sports outlets covering the Browns this season. That’s probably the biggest indictment you can have on how the Browns season will play out. That is unless you believe Kobe Bryant when he said that if he wanted legitimate sports news these days, he goes to TMZ. In the event that you’re all aboard the Manziel media circus, you can at least enjoy how everything unfolds by laying some wood on Manziel to win Offensive Rookie of the Year at 6/1 odds. Sources say that he’s taking snaps with the first team or something to that effect.
Win Totals
All four AFC North teams have the distinct pleasure of having weak 2014 schedules based on the strength of opposition. The Ravens have the fifth easiest schedule with an opponent win percentage of .461. The other three AFC North teams aren’t far behind; beginning with the Browns having the seventh easiest schedule (.465) followed by the Steelers and the Bengals, which are tied with the eight easiest schedules (.469).
The seemingly soft schedule should bode well for their win totals. The Ravens, Bengals, and Steelers are at 8.5 wins with the Browns at 6.5 wins. That’s about as close as it’s going to get for all these teams. This is toss-up of a three-sided coin at best, but I have the Bengals going over safely with the Ravens and Steelers needing the entire season to clear eight wins. One of those two will probably fall under that number, joining the Browns in the cellar with six or seven wins. The best bet here is Cincinnati to hit the over on 8.5 wins.
To Win Division Odds
The same principle applies here when dealing with division odds. Like what I’ve mentioned, the Bengals, Steelers, and Ravens are all at 2/1 odds. That’s about as close as it’s going to get. If the Browns didn’t have to deal with the Manziel circus, I would’ve probably looked at them as a legitimate dark horse to pull off a Kansas City Chiefs 2013 run. However, since Cleveland’s going to be more of a soap opera this year than anything else, I’m turning my attention on splitting hairs among the other three teams. I’m already on record as saying this, so might as well, say it again. Cincinnati at 2/1 odds.
Title Odds
Oddsmakers aren’t particularly enamored about any of the AFC North teams making a Super Bowl run. That’s the reason why the Bengals are at 25/1 odds and they have the shortest odds of any of its division rivals. The Ravens are close behind at 28/1 while the Steelers are 33/1. The Browns, meanwhile, are all the way down at 80/1. Here’s an interesting tidbit: when the Ravens won Super Bowl XLVII, they began that season at the exact same 28/1 odds—food for the thought for those backing Baltimore.
Predicted Order of Finish
As easy as it was to predict the AFC East, the AFC North is a little trickier. I suppose that since I already backed the Cincinnati Bengals, there’s no reason for me to back out of that. Therefore, I won’t. I’m riding with Dalton, Green, and the ugliest helmets in the entire NFL. I’m basing it on a pure talent standpoint and the fact that both Pittsburgh and Baltimore still have some holes on both sides of the ball to make a difference. As for the Browns, well, maybe next year?
1. Cincinnati Bengals
2. Pittsburgh Steelers
3. Baltimore Ravens
4. Cleveland Browns
