Oakland Raiders quarterback Derek Carr’s struggles against the Kansas City Chiefs, at least according to oddsmakers, apparently override the Chiefs’ recent against-the-spread struggles at Arrowhead Stadium.
Odds courtesy of OddsShark.com
In a game that could decide the AFC West title, the Chiefs are listed as three-point favorites against the Raiders with a 46.5-point total in the Thursday Night Football matchup.
Kansas City is 1-7 against the spread in their last eight home games as well as 1-5 straight-up and ATS in their last six night games. The Raiders are also 8-0 ATS in their last eight road games.
The Raiders are 10-2 SU and 8-4 ATS, but a night game in the Midwest in December might be sub-optimal for their fifth-ranked offense. Carr is 1-4 as a starter against the Chiefs and is dealing with a broken pinky finger on his passing hand. However, the Raiders have defeated four of the top eight teams in fewest yards per pass allowed, a stat where the Chiefs rank 21st.
With Amari Cooper, Michael Crabtree and Seth Roberts, the Raiders might have more weapons than Kansas City’s defense, even with standouts such as CB Marcus Peters and FS Eric Berry, can handle.
The Chiefs defense has ILB Derrick Johnson back, which could make life difficult for the Raiders’ offensive line and RB Latavius Murray. Oakland has allowed an NFL-low 12 sacks.
The Chiefs are 9-3 SU and 6-6 ATS. In the teams’ first meeting in Week 6, Kansas City rushed for 183 yards, including 131 from RB Spencer Ware. The Raiders allowed 212 rushing yards against the Buffalo Bills in Week 13, which raises the question of whether whether OLB Bruce Irvin and cohorts will be able to avoid a repeat performance.
Chiefs QB Alex Smith was pinpoint during that October 16 game at Oakland. The Chiefs’ passing game should get a boost from having WR Jeremy Maclin back from a four-game absence. The main injury question on the Raiders defense is hard-hitting SS Karl Joseph (toe). If he’s out, the Raiders lose an athlete who is vital in run defense and in trying to stop TE Travis Kelce.
The Chiefs are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 home games against the Raiders.
The total has gone UNDER in six of the Raiders’ last eight games on the road against the Chiefs. The total has gone UNDER in nine of the Chiefs’ last 11 games as home favorites.
