There are few sports/games where you would take luck and confidence over skill, but I am seriously beginning to believe that poker is one of them. I know this will upset the poker purists who argue vehemently that poker is a game of skill, but my eyes don’t deceive me.
I see it all the time.
Take the rise to the top of the chip counts of the WPT Player of the Year, Matt Salsberg, who is in the Aviation Club de France (ACF) to defend the title he won last September.
Now I’m not saying Salsberg doesn’t have any skill. I don’t believe you can win a POY title without a decent understanding of the finer points of the game, but to be the chip leader at the same venue that your career took off just one year earlier?
Come on. There has to be more to it than that?
By the time Salsberg had maneuvered his way to 100,000 chips he was one of the front-runners of the competition. Although I didn’t see his every move, I would say that Salsberg feels comfortable playing his cards at the ACF, and it’s this confidence that is seeing him picking up – and avoiding losing – chips in some of the tougher spots.
Then, in the final level of the day, Ekrem Sanioglu had a dispute with Matt Salsberg that resulted in him moving 100k into the middle, pre flop, holding ace-queen. Salsberg called with pocket aces and today he headlines all of the poker news stories screaming out for the back-to-back win.
That hand is the epitome of luck. The rest of the table must have been watching and thinking, ‘Why doesn’t that ever happen to me?” I believe the rulers of ‘luck’ dole it out based on the positivity of attitude, and you don’t get a more positive attitude than the reigning champion trying to recapture his former glory on common ground.
So who else is just getting plain old lucky in this tournament?
I know there is a heck of a long way to go, but keep your eye out on these three players.
Frenchman Hicham Hilmi is having the greatest poker year of his life. The WPT National Series Annecy winner, was the Day 1B chip leader, and if it wasn’t for Sanioglu’s gift to Salsberg, would have retained that position.
This shows me that Hilmi knows how to cultivate and grow a big chip stack and I believe this player will go deep. The only thing going against him is his nationality. David Benyamine is the only Frenchman to ever win this title despite 18 of them making final tables in previous years.
David Peters – 171,200
I like Peters. He just quietly goes about his business of beating people up with little undue fuss. Just like Hilmi he is going through the best year of his life and that means he is attracting that luck and confidence thing I was talking about earlier.
Peters has had four six-figure scores this year, and has earned over $1m in live tournament earnings. Watch out for him to make a deep run in this one.
Kimmo Kurko – 139,700
The Finnish professional has made two major final table appearances this year, and has earned over $1m in live tournament earnings. He is looking assured and confident and I expect Kurko to make a real impression in this tournament.
Add Salsberg to that mix and those are the four players I believe will run deep this year, but the ride is going to be a bumpy one. Marvin Rettenmaier, Bryn Kenney, Athanasios Polychronopoulos, Timothy Adams, Jonathan Little, Jason Koon, Mohsin Charania and Shawn Buchanan all have the potential to pick up a head of steam on the third day of action.
That action starts at 14:30 (CET) and you can follow the live updates at WPT.com, or stay tuned here at CalvinAyre for all the very best interviews live from Paris.
