Georgia Senate betting odds suggest a toss-up for control of Congress

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Total control of the U.S. congress is up for grabs on January 5 as Georgia goes to the polls, again, and votes for two senators…again. Not having decided on who their senators would be on the November 3 election, the race has been narrowed to two sets of two, and Bodog has odds for everything.

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In the first race, unelected incumbent Kelly Loeffler (R) is hoping to hold off Reverend Raphael Warnock. Loeffler got her senate seat in 2019 when Governor Brian Kemp selected her to replace the ailing Johnny Isakson, and has never won an election. Warnock is also running for the first time, but has had a history of political activism, for some of which he’s now being attacked.

During the November 3 vote, Warnock led Loeffler 32.9% to 25.9%, with several other Democratic and Republican candidates splitting the rest of the vote, with Doug Collins notably taking 20% of the Republican vote. The R vote added up to 49.3%, the D vote added up to 48.4%, and the remaining 2.3% going to Green Party and Independent candidates.

In the second race, Senator David Perdue (R) is hoping to beat Jon Ossoff. Ossoff, an investigative journalist previously lost a close race for a congressional seat in 2017, and got 47.9% to Perdue’s 49.7% in the November 3 election, with a Libertarian taking 2.3% of the remaining vote.

Georgia’s traditionally been a Republican leaning state, and the initial results of the 2020 vote suggest this should be an easy win for the Republicans. If the Republicans win either of the seats, they would control the senate 51-49, forcing President-elect Joe Biden to make deals with Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell to get anything done for the next 2 years.

But the polls suggest Georgia’s election of Biden is no fluke, and the tides have turned.

While initial polls suggested a very close race, new polling has shown that the Democrats have formed a solid lead, and are now favored to win both seats. Republicans are doing everything they can to turn the tide, including weak efforts from President Donald Trump, who may have sabotaged the campaigns as much as he helped them by suggesting voter fraud, bad voting machines and lost votes.. 

While polling has been all over the place in recent years, in 2020 pollsters suggested Biden would win narrowly in Georgia, and he did just that.

An impressive early vote tally also suggests the Democrats might win. More than 3 million have already voted, nearly 60% of the November 3 total already. And as we saw in that election, early votes tended to go blue.

Bodog’s odds mostly add up to match what the polling and November 3 votes suggest will happen. Warnock is expected to win, Ossoff could win a nail biter if everything goes his way, and the Republicans are generally expected to at least hold one of these seats and keep the Senate.

U.S. Senate Election Winner – Georgia (Special Election)

Raphael Warnock (D)     -180

Kelly Loeffler (R)             +135

U.S. Senate Election Winner – Georgia (Special Election)

Jon Ossoff (D)                  -125

David Perdue (R)            -105

Which Party Will Control the Senate After 2020 Election?

Republican Party             -120

Democratic Party            -110