It’s been a huge week for U.S. politics, and the odds are on the move. The House impeachment hearings have wrapped up their second full week of investigation, with all of the big witnesses to President Donald Trump’s alleged crimes having spoken. The Democratic presidential hopefuls have also had their fifth debate, and there looks to be some changes in the rankings.
When we last checked in on Trump’s odds of being impeached, early witnesses had fallen a bit flat, and Predictit had him at $0.74 to be impeached. Since then, absolutely damaging testimony from Lt. Col. Alexander Vindman, Gordon Sondland and Dr. Fiona Hill, each of them confirming a Quid Pro Quo and labeling the scheme as inappropriate, have pumped that price to a new all-time high at $0.80. If you’re going to bet on Trump to be impeached, it’s pretty good odds you’ll win, so get in now before it’s all but certain.
But will he be forced out of office? Unless a sudden new witness comes forward, the answer seems a solid no. With the expected witnesses having been exhausted, Trump now sees a price of $0.79 to complete his first term. That’s the highest it’s been since September 24, when Nancy Pelosi first announced the impeachment inquiry.
So it looks like Trump will be campaigning for his 2020 re-election campaign. But who will he face? The fifth democratic debate was held on November 20, and there was plenty of movement since the last time we looked at the candidates.
Warren hasn’t done well as a front runner, dropping from the $0.38 when we last checked in to $0.24 the day before the debate, tied with former Vice President Joe Biden (who had not much change). The debate helped her slightly, but only ever so little, and she’s climbed back to a $0.25 position, a one cent lead on her closest competitor.
Who is that closest competitor? The still surging South Bend Mayor Pete Buttigieg. From a $0.08 position before the October debate, Mayor Pete has now surged to $0.24. How has he done it? Polls show he’s now favored to win the first battle of the primary, the Iowa Caucuses. He’s also not been afraid to get a bit mean in the debates.
Tulsi Gabbard criticized Pete Buttigieg as inexperienced before he quickly returned the attack over her meeting with Bashar al Assad. “Let’s also talk about judgment,” he said. “I would not have sat down with a murderous dictator like that.” #DemDebate https://t.co/l8SRQ7wyuR pic.twitter.com/llGXEEoaYV
— POLITICO (@politico) November 21, 2019
Meanwhile, Biden continues to struggle in debates, lags behind in the Iowa and New Hampshire polls, and has no momentum whatsoever. While he leads the polls nationally, he’s going to struggle hard to find himself in the lead by the time the South Carolina primary happens on February 29. He currently sits at $0.21.
All signs points to Buttigieg picking up the moderate vote. The question is if Warren can hold on as the progressive choice to battle him in 2020, or if Bernie Sanders ($0.15) has any gas left in the tank.
The only candidate who’s shown any kind of momentum to mirror Buttigieg recently is new entrant Mike Bloomberg ($0.09), but he and Biden likely share the same vote.
