The AFC South Division has all the makings of a boring division. You have one team that’s clearly better than the rest. You have another that’s hard to get a handle on. Then you have two teams that are expected to bring up the rear of the standings…of the entire league. The Indianapolis Colts are the class of the division. Anybody who says otherwise is either a Houston Texans fan or somebody who thinks that Peyton Manning’s successor is a scrub. Wherever your loyalties lie, it’s hard to bet against a Colts team that’s poised to make a deep Super Bowl run. More so when it has division rivals that have more holes and questions about their own teams.
What’s the next step for the Indianapolis Colts?
Andrew Luck’s first two seasons as Indy’s signal-caller ended with two straight trips to the playoffs. Now that those expectations have been met, the onus is on the Colts to take another step forward into Super Bowl contenders. Luck’s got some more weapons to play with this season with the addition of Hakeem Nicks to a receiving crop that already includes Reggie Wayne, TY Hilton, and tight end Dwayne Allen. If Luck can make a significant leap in Year 3, his 16/1 odds to win league MVP could end up being a smart play this early in the season. Indy’s cause will also be helped by the perceived weakness of the AFC where only the Denver Broncos and the New England Patriots have shorter title odds than Indy’s 20/1 odds. If Indianapolis can position themselves to win home field advantage in the playoffs, they could make a deep run in the postseason.
Can the Houston Texans bounce back this season?
Raise your hand if you thought the Texans would have the season they had last year? No? No one? A majority of NFL fans who viewed the Texans as legitimate Super Bowl contenders last season probably shares that sentiment. Hell, the team was a healthy 17/1 before the season started last year. They even opened the season with a 2-0 record before everything went off the rails, culminating in the worst record in the league and the right to pick first at the Draft. The Texans addressed a need at quarterback by taking defensive end Jadaveon Clowney first, a position that they had already JJ Watt playing. I understand the whole point of stacking your D-line with two lethal bookend pass rushers, but Houston did all that without even upgrading on their QB situation. I’m not sold on Ryan Fitzpatrick being the answer and Case Keenum hasn’t proved his ready for a full season. In the meantime, Fitzpatrick gets the nod as the starter, further dampening my optimism about the Texans’ chances of winning the division and returning to the playoffs.
Should we really care about the Tennessee Titans and the Jacksonville Jaguars?
From a betting standpoint, of course we should care. There’s money to be made from both teams. But from a competition standpoint, we’re probably better off watching the Dallas Cowboys stumble their way into another mediocre season. At least there’ll be some drama in Big D. So what can we expect in Tennessee, other than keeping tabs on Jake Locker’s development, which really isn’t all that interesting to begin with. How about rooting for them to continue their paltry 19-27-2 ATS record around in the past three years. There can still be fun in fading NFL teams. Tennessee has shown that it’s possible.
The Jags fall in the same irrelevant boat as the Titans. There’s not a lot to look forward to, other than the sheer joy of fading them when the season starts. Jacksonville does have a rookie in Blake Bortles that we can keep an eye on, only because he’s the third overall pick in the draft. What’s worse is that they don’t even have the only player on their team – Maurice Jones-Drew – that we enjoyed watching in the past. He’s with the Oakland Raiders now. If you want to make the Jaguars an interesting team to watch this season, buy some stock on Bortles’ Offensive Rookie of the Year candidacy. At the moment, he’s got 20/1 odds to win the award. Okay, it’s not all that exciting rooting for a guy who I have no faith in whatsoever.
Win Totals
By the sheer quality of the quarterbacks in this division, Andrew Luck and the Colts should have no problems running away with this division, even if their 9.5 wins total is just two wins separate of Houston’s 7.5 wins line. The big question in Houston is whether that defense can carry the team to eight or more wins. I’m very skeptical of that happening, even with Watt and Clowney anchoring the line. Tennessee (7.0 wins) and worse, Jacksonville (4.5 wins) aren’t expected to contend for anything other than who finishes last in the division. All that being said, if Bortles proves to be as good as his draft position shows, is it possible that the Jags can squeak their way into five wins for the entire year? I looked up their strength of schedule and they have the fourth easiest schedule in the league! Oh, wait. The teams ranked first, second and third are Indianapolis, Houston, and Tennessee. Never mind.
To Win Division
As I said, it’s Indianapolis’ division to lose. Not only do they have the easiest schedule in the league (.430), they also play in a division that’s probably not going to offer any serious threat on their way to a division title. The Colts are the overwhelming favorite at 4/6 odds to win the Southeast, followed by Houston at a respectable 9/4 odds. Then it’s Tennessee at 5/1 odds and Jacksonville all the way down at 16/1 odds. Houston has a chance to make some noise, especially if they at least split the series with the Colts. However, at the end of the day, unless something happens to their star QB and Luck isn’t on their side literally and figuratively, this division race could be over with a few more weeks left to spare in the season.
Title Odds
At 80/1 and 100/1, respectively, you can immediately strike off the Titans and the Jaguars as viable Super Bowl contenders. That’s not happening now, or anytime soon. That leaves the Colts at 20/1 and the Houston Texans at 40/1. Houston’s interesting because people forget that they’re removed from being one of the league’s best teams for two years now. But they have a new coach, a new quarterback, and quite frankly, plenty of unanswered questions to even be considered dark horses. That leaves us with the Colts and make no mistake; Indianapolis has a legitimate shot at making a deep run if the pieces fall their way. An injury to Manning or Brady immediately derails those team’s title hopes. If a potential upstart like Cincinnati or, dare I say, Buffalo find their way into the mix, the Colts shouldn’t have a hard time beating those teams. The 20/1 odds are live, people! Better pounce on it before they go down.
Predicted Order of Finish
It’s a relatively easy division to predict if things fall according to place. The Colts are so far the best team in the division. Houston could give them a challenge but I see them fading again in the end. Tennessee and Jacksonville should have a good time fighting for a higher draft seeding next year.
1. Indianapolis
2. Houston
3. Tennessee
4. Jacksonville
