NFL defenses aren’t as glamorous as their counterparts on the other side of the ball. A good defense usually means having some menacing brutes in the trenches and some ball-hawking high-flyers in the secondary. A dominant defense also doesn’t make for good TV, unless you have the kind of bone-crunching mayhem the Seattle Seahawks’ Legion of Boom can inflict on any given weekend.
But if you’re into enjoying the spoils of prop betting, wagers on defensive stats offer plenty of rewards—if you know who to bet on that is.
I’m going to begin with the most important defensive prop of the year: the Defensive Player of the Year.
Not surprisingly, the two best odds belong to the past two winners of the award: Houston Texans defensive end JJ Watt at 7/1 odds and Carolina Panthers linebacker Luke Kuechly at 10/1 odds. If you’re looking for a sexy pick, Seattle Seahawks cornerback Richard Sherman has nice 12/1 odds while Denver Broncos linebacker Von Miller is 12/1 to win his first defensive player of the year award. Another linebacker, Tampa Bay Bucaneers’ Lavonte David is at 14/1 while St. Louis Rams defensive end Robert Quinn is a nice 16/1 get. Moving down the list, I noticed one player who I’m really high on to make an impact this year: Kansas City Chiefs linebacker Justin Houston at 33/1 odds. Those are tremendous odds for a guy who’s already an elite pass rusher with improving coverage skills to boot.
If there’s one thing Houston hasn’t done a whole lot in his two years in the NFL, it’s tackling. Last year, he only accounted for 66 tackles, which pales in comparison to the 156 tackles Kuechly accounted for in the same amount of games. Naturally, the reigning defensive player of the year is the co-favorite to register the “Most Tackles” in the league this season with Cincinnati’s Vontaze Burfict at 5/1 odds. Burfict actually led the NFL in tackles last year with 171 to his name so he’s an equally intriguing bet to make it two straight years leading this category. Just outside of these two are the Bucs’ Lavonte David at 6/1 odds, followed by San Francisco 49ers linebacker Patrick Willis and Jacksonville Jaguars linebacker Paul Pozluszny, both of whom received 12/1 odds. Seattle Seahawks linebacker Bobby Wagner is at 14/1 odds while my personal sleeper, St. Louis Rams linebacker James Laurinaitis sits at a delicious 20/1 odds.
Moving on to the Sacks Leader, we see the usual cast of favorites led by Robert Quinn and JJ Watt at 5/1 and 7/1 odds, respectively. Carolina Panthers linebacker Greg Hardy is at 10/1 odds, although I’m not touching that because of potential legal problems that could lead to a lengthy suspension for the Pro Bowler. Kansas City Chiefs linebacker Tamba Hali and Von Miller are both at 12/1 odds while my pick to be the sacks leader – Justin Houston sits at an intriguing 20/1.
Outside of all the individual defensive stats, defensive prop bets aren’t complete without betting on the Team to Concede the Least Points throughout the season. The obvious choice is the Seahawks at 3/1 odds. I’m not sure about that, at least not as much as I am on the 49ers at 5/1 odds and the Panthers at 7/1 odds. It really boils down to one of those three teams. But if you’re eyeing a sleeper, I’m going to suggest a surprise pick here: the New Orleans Saints at 20/1! A year after ranking fourth in points allowed, I think Rob Ryan’s defense will be even better this season. Hell, I see the Saints D being as good, maybe even better than at least two of those three teams. That’s why I’m rolling the dice on the New Orleans defensive becoming the best defensive unit in the NFL this year.
