There might be no better time to be a U.S. politics junky than right now. Sure, the president might be getting booed at the World Series and America might be descending into dysfunctional chaos as a climate catastrophe approaches. But if you love betting on political horse races and political drama, the ongoing impeachment of Donald Trump and the 2020 Presidential election are serving up the goods. We’re returning to PredictIt.org to see how the odds are doing for both.
First, Donald Trump. When we last reported on the U.S. President, odds that he would be successfully impeached had risen to $0.73 on news that his lawyer, former New York Mayor Rudy Giuliani, had been working with associates arrested on charges of fraud. Those odds have steadily increased as further testimony has looked damning for Trump, but briefly dropped over the weekend, on news that ISIS leader Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi had been killed.
That was before Lt. Col. Alexander Vindman testified.
Reports indicated Vindman was on the call that got this impeachment inquiry started, and has testified to the House impeachment investigators that the transcript the White House has provided to the world is incomplete, missing several more references to the Bidens.
With that news, impeachment odds are once again hitting all-time highs. A successful Trump impeachment closed at $0.79 on October 29. Odds of Trump finishing his first term, which had improved over the last two weeks, have returned to $0.70, just a penny off their all-time low.
So how are the Democrats doing while all of this impeachment talk is going on? It’s been a few weeks since the last debate, and we have about three weeks until the next, so it’s a great time to look at their standing in the betting as we enjoy this lull.
Time isn’t kind to Elizabeth Warren when she doesn’t have the men in front of her to beat in a debate. Her odds have slipped from the post-October debate $0.45 she enjoyed to an October 29 close of $0.38.
Similarly, perhaps because he’s wrapped up in Trump’s impeachment, former Vice President Joe Biden has stayed mostly level at $0.22. Vermont Senator Bernie Sanders has also stayed mostly even at $0.12.
One man who’s kept up momentum since doing well at the debate has been Mayor Pete Buttigieg. He improved from $0.08 to $0.11 during the October debate, and has built that into a $0.15 current standing.
So where’s the smart money going? Shockingly, to failed 2016 Presidential candidate Hillary Clinton. Rumors have continuously indicated that Democratic insiders are hoping she’ll run again, uninspired by their current choices. Her odds have gone up from $0.06 to a current $0.10.
