History suggests Dak Prescott and the Dallas Cowboys could break a three-game skid against the spread when they face a Tampa Bay Buccaneers team which is on a five-game winning streak. Odds courtesy of OddsShark.com
The Cowboys are listed as the seven-point favorite against the Buccaneers with a 47-point total in the Sunday Night Football matchup. Dallas is 6-0 straight-up and 5-1 against the spread in their last six games as a favorite of 6.5 points or more, as well as 18-6 SU in their last 24 home games after consecutive road games.
The Buccaneers, whose five-game roll includes wins against the Kansas City Chiefs and Seattle Seahawks, are 8-5 SU and 8-5 ATS. Quarterback Jameis Winston and WR Mike Evans help furnish Tampa Bay with a much better passing game than that of the Minnesota Vikings and New York Giants, whom Dallas held to a combined 25 points in its last two games. This is a major test for Winston, though, but for most of the season he’s been able to prop up a one-dimensional offense.
The disparity between the Bucs’ passing and running games could be even more pronounced this week. Led by OLB Sean Lee, the Cowboys have a fierce run defense. They can have lapses in pass coverage and might struggle to stop underrated TE Cameron Brate.
The Cowboys are 11-2 SU and 9-3-1 ATS. Their passing game has been ice-cold in recent weeks, with the rookie Prescott struggling to make reads and identify which defensive players are blitzing. Tampa Bay leads the NFL in turnovers and scoring defense since Week 10 and consistently gets pressure on the quarterback while using a four-man rush spearheaded by DE Robert Ayers.
Not having to blitz the linebackers as frequently means OLB Lavonte David and MLB Kwon Alexander can focus on wreaking havoc in both the passing and rushing phases.
That said, a reason that Dallas is a touchdown favorite is the expectation that their top-ranked offensive line will control the line of scrimmage against the Buccaneers’ below-average run defense. Ezekiel Elliott furnishes the Cowboys with one of the league’s best rushing attacks and the Bucs have struggled against teams with good ground games.
The total has gone under in nine of the Buccaneers’ last 11 games against the Cowboys. The total has gone under in four of the Cowboys’ last five games as a favorite.
