Last weekend was a pretty rigorous reminder that the best team doesn’t always win. As much as we like to pretend that we know teams, things change drastically from week to week. Now, Roethlisberger is out, the Packers are in a free fall, Denver has lost two games and Carolina’s only won one. Making sense of how all this shakes out is no easy task. Frankly, the only thing that we know for sure is that New England is undeniably the best team in the league. After that, the waters get really, really muddy.
1. New England Patriots (5-1 SU and ATS)
Bill Belichik has said that he’s done with the Microsoft Surface tablets, which I find absolutely hilarious. It would be perfect if he showed up with an iPad next week and then offered no explanation in the press conference.
Next Game: New England -7.0 at Pittsburgh
2. Minnesota Vikings (5-0 SU and ATS)
Is there such a thing as a Sam Bradford revenge game? Does he really strike that much fear in to anyone? Or does it not matter because Minnesota is so good from top to bottom with the runaway Coach of the Year candidate?
Next Week: Minnesota -2.5 at Philadelphia
3. Atlanta Falcons (5-1 SU and ATS)
I refuse to drop the Falcons because of a botched pass interference call. They still covered the spread, looked resilient on the road in the most hostile environment that exists and they not only came from behind, they should have won.
Next Game: San Diego at Atlanta -6.5
4. Dallas Cowboys (5-1 SU and ATS)
It’s so weird that this talk of “Prescott over Romo” is gaining so much attention. Remember when we could just have one conversation about a hot topic and then form our own opinions? I miss those days. Listen, you can point fingers at Jerry Jones for doing a lot of dumb things but the one quality he’s had that I’ve always admired is loyalty. Romo has done a ton to make Dallas credible again. He deserves his starting job back no matter what. And really, what’s the worse that happens? Romo just had surgery on his freaking spine and has fractured the same collarbone twice. Just tell Dak he gets to have a few weeks off before he’s needed again.
Next Game: BYE
5. Denver Broncos (4-2 SU and ATS)
The Curse of Head Coach Wade Phillips lives on!
Next Game: Houston at Denver -7.5 (Monday Night)
6. Buffalo Bills (4-2 SU and ATS)
Round up the wagons, the Buffalo Bills are a great bet again! None of it really makes sense. They have the 22nd best offence in yards gained, and the 12th best offence in yards allowed. Yet they rank top-5 in points scored for and against. That, my friends, makes for a palpable play. And they’re as far away from a public bet as you can get.
Next Game: Buffalo -3.0 at Miami
7. Seattle Seahawks (4-1 SU and 2-3 ATS)
Why do the refs love the Seahawks so freaking much?!
Next Game: Seattle at Arizona -2.0
8. Pittsburgh Steelers (4-2 SU and ATS)
Never fear, Antonio Brown fantasy owners. Landry Jones had one meaningful game last season against Kansas City. Sure, the Steelers lost by 10 points, but Brown still accumulated 124 yards.
Next Game: New England -7.0 at Pittsburgh
9. Arizona Cardinals (3-3 SU and ATS)
I’ve always been high on Arizona because one of my favorite angles in NFL betting is coaches. Bruce Arians is as good as it gets, and he took some whooping to remind himself that he can’t get too crazy with what he does best. Now that Arizona has returned to course, they’re a bet on team. Yes, even against Seattle.
Next Game: Seattle at Arizona -2.0
10. Kansas City Chiefs (3-2 SU and 2-3 ATS)
Everything you like about Buffalo is why you should like the Chiefs. It’s taken some time to get Jamaal Charles back in the fold, but with him sharing time with Spencer Ware the Chiefs can most definitely be one of the best rushing teams. Their defence isn’t as good as they remain without Justin Houston but the Chiefs are trending up at a time when everyone else is trending down.
Next Game: New Orleans at Kansas City -6.5
11. Washington Redskins (4-2 SU and ATS)
Washington probably deserves to be higher given that my standards for these rankings are based on spread record and actual record, but this is about as high as I’m willing to put a team that has a 0.0 point differential.
Next Game: Washington at Detroit -1.0
12. San Diego Chargers (2-4 SU and 4-2 ATS)
The Chargers are that darling “bad luck, good bet” team that’s really hard to nail down at this point in the season. Unfortunately, they visit the Atlanta Falcons next week with the 24th ranked passing defence.
Next Game: San Diego at Atlanta -6.5
13. Green Bay Packers (4-2 SU and 2-2-1 ATS)
If you think Eddie Lacy was big before, just wait until he can’t run around for four weeks. I know that a month ago I said that our talk of Lacy’s weight was the equivalent to social media body shaming, but I honestly don’t understand how a professional athlete can get as big as he’s gotten since Week 1 considering what he does for a living and the resources available to him. It should be impossible to get that out of shape on an NFL team right?
Next Game: Chicago at Green Bay -7.5 (Thursday Night)
14. Oakland Raiders (4-2 SU and 3-3 ATS)
Oakland is quite literally the team everyone wants to believe in and can’t resist. But while I’m hammering on point differential, here’s the kicker with this team: they have a -1.9 points per game average. They’ve been favored four times. You do the math. Or just look at the line their getting against Jacksonville next weekend.
Next Game: Oakland at Jacksonville -1.5
15. Houston Texans (4-2 SU and 3-2-1 ATS)
I can’t wait for the Brock Osweiler revenge game in Denver this weekend. It’s mostly because I don’t like him very much, I think he’s terrible and DeMarcus Ware is coming back.
Next Game: Houston at Denver -7.5 (Monday Night)
16. Los Angeles Rams (3-3 SU and ATS)
I know that the punch line for the Rams is that “Case Keenum had his best game and the Rams still lost” but don’t you like how they’re performing? The Rams are literally the Puncher’s Chance Team of 2016. There’s no way that they should’ve been just +2.5 dogs in Detroit last weekend. The oddsmakers know that the Rams are capable of stealing games and you should probably have figured that out by now too.
Next Game: NYG -2.5 at Los Angeles (England Game)
17. Philadelphia Eagles (3-2 SU and ATS)
Dropping Philly from #6 to #17 is my way of telling you to run as fast as you can in the other direction. The Eagles looked awesome during the first three weeks of the season, while the rest of the league looked out of sorts. Almost instantly, every opponent has caught on to what the conservative Eagles are doing.
Next Week: Minnesota -2.5 at Philadelphia
18. Detroit Lions (3-3 SU and ATS)
There’s a lot to like about Detroit from a fantasy football perspective, but the fact that they have a -0.5 point differential makes them a completely hazardous betting option. I don’t know what to make of them to be honest.
Next Game: Washington at Detroit -1.0
19. Cincinnati Bengals (2-4 SU and ATS)
To be fair, the Bengals have faced some of the toughest opposition so far this season. But they’re also a wildly unpredictable team. You also have to factor in Vontaze Burfict doing Vontaze Burfict things, and we’ve seen what kind of crap his idiocy can do to a game.
Next Game: Cleveland at Cincinnati -10.0
20. New York Giants (3-3 SU and 2-3-1 ATS)
Usually there’s a team that forces opponents in to these ugly, ugly games. They usually make for pretty decent bets. But the Giants have accomplished the impossible: making games unbearable to watch and they’re a terrible option in the sportsbook.
Next Game: NYG -2.5 at Los Angeles (England Game)
21. New Orleans Saints (2-3 SU and 3-2 ATS)
It should be an uplifting effort to beat the defending conference champions, but you don’t get bonus points with me for barely outlasting any one-win team no matter who they are.
Next Game: New Orleans at Kansas City -6.5
22. Baltimore Ravens (3-3 SU and 2-4 ATS)
Speaking of boring, it’s the Baltimore Ravens potentially without Joe Flacco this weekend! That’s right, it’s Ryan Mallet time! DROP THE HAMMER!
Next Game: Baltimore at NYJ -1.0
23. Tennessee Titans (3-2 SU and 2-4 ATS)
I see you heating up Marcus Mariota. I see it loud and clear.
Next Game: Indianapolis at Tennessee -2.5
24. Carolina Panthers (1-5 SU and ATS)
I’ve heard of Super Bowl Hangovers but this is ridiculous. They’ve gone from defending NFC Champions, to Super Bowl favorite to…one of the worst teams in the league. People want to blame Cam Newton because he’s an easy target, but can you really fault a team that ranks top-7 in all the major offensive categories? The real kicker here is their secondary. The only visible difference between the 2015 Panthers and the 2016 Panthers is that their secondary is allowing 2.1 touchdown per game instead of 1.3. Have fun throwing that little nugget around at the water cooler.
Next Game: BYE
25. Jacksonville Jaguars (1-3 SU and 2-3 ATS)
The Jaguars had a bye week, and nobody really noticed because nobody really cares anymore. We’re tired of waiting for this team to be interesting.
Next Game: Oakland at Jacksonville -1.5
26. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (2-3 SU and ATS)
The Bucs just lost Vincent Jackson, which probably has zero impact on how this team does anyhow. The guy you’re waiting for is Doug Martin who is still out for a while. Of course, good luck getting me to bet on San Francisco at this point regardless.
Next Game: Tampa Bay -2.0 at San Francisco
27. Indianapolis Colts (2-4 SU and 2-3-1 ATS)
Just when you think you can believe in the Colts again, they go and blow a fourth quarter lead to Brock Osweiler.
Next Game: Indianapolis at Tennessee -2.5
28. Cleveland Browns (0-6 SU and 2-4 ATS)
Everyone in baseball keeps saying that “this is Cleveland’s year!!!! The Cavs and now the Indians!!! GO BELIEVELAND!” Um, the Browns are probably going to go winless this season, guys. Cleveland still gets to be Cleveland.
Next Game: Cleveland at Cincinnati -10.0
29. Chicago Bears (1-5 SU and ATS)
Alshon Jeffrey went on an explicative-laden tirade that the Chicago Bears have to score more f—- touchdowns. Oh, so that’s the problem!
Next Game: Chicago at Green Bay -7.5 (Thursday Night)
30. Miami Dolphins (2-4 SU and ATS)
I know there’s probably a handful of Miami fans that probably detest that I keep ranking Miami as the worst team in the league. So here’s your reprieve. They’re the third worst this week!
Next Game: Buffalo -3.0 at Miami
31. San Francisco 49ers (1-5 SU and ATS)
The 49ers can’t win with this terrible run defence. Fortunately, they play the Bucs this weekend!
Next Game: Tampa Bay -2.0 at San Francisco
32. New York Jets (1-5 SU and ATS)
Starting Geno Smith reeks of Woody Johnson stepping in and telling Bowles who to play. This locker room HATES Geno. I’m so excited to see him flounder on Sunday.
Next Game: Baltimore at NYJ -1.0
