It can be foolish to rank NFL Draft prospects a year before the next draft. At this point last year, LSU quarterback Joe Burrow was around +20000 to win the 2019 Heisman Trophy and was barely a blip on the radar of NFL scouts following a so-so first season as LSU’s starter in 2018.
Odds courtesy of OddsShark.com
Of course, Burrow in 2019 had arguably the best season ever by a quarterback in major college football, setting FBS single-season records in passing touchdowns (60) and total touchdowns (65) in winning the Heisman Trophy and leading the Tigers to the national championship. Burrow went No. 1 overall in the 2020 NFL Draft to the Cincinnati Bengals. It was an almost unprecedented rise.
However, had Clemson quarterback Trevor Lawrence been eligible for April’s draft, he most likely would have gone first to the Bengals because Lawrence is considered the best quarterback prospect since Stanford’s Andrew Luck was the top overall pick in the 2012 draft to the Indianapolis Colts – Luck was largely excellent but injury prone in the NFL and shockingly retired before the 2019 season.
To no surprise, Lawrence is a -325 heavy favorite to be the first overall pick of the 2021 NFL Draft. Assuming the coronavirus is under control, next year’s draft will be held April 29-May 1 in downtown Cleveland. The NFL picked that city because the Browns will be celebrating their 75th anniversary throughout 2021.
Which team might take Lawrence? The Jacksonville Jaguars have the lowest betting win total of 4.5 entering the 2020 season. What if the Bengals finish with the worst record again? With Burrow in tow, they’d likely either trade the No. 1 overall pick for a haul or take Oregon offensive tackle Penei Sewell, who is +500 to go first in 2021. Sewell would have been the first offensive lineman taken in this year’s draft as he’s also considered a can’t-miss prospect.
Ohio State QB Justin Fields and Lawrence are the two top Heisman Trophy candidates for 2020 and Fields, who finished third in the voting a season ago, is the +275 second-favorite as next year’s top pick. Fields was better statistically than Lawrence last year but is three inches shorter and occasionally would struggle with his reads and visually target his intended receiver immediately. NFL defenders would have a field day with that.
Fields had just three interceptions all of 2019 but two came in the College Football Playoff loss to Lawrence’s Tigers, and that gave some NFL scouts pause.
