Let’s face it: Every NFL Draft is about the quarterbacks. It’s the most important, high-profile position in all of sports. Even in the rare years where a signal-caller isn’t going to be the No. 1 overall pick in the draft, it’s still all about the quarterbacks.
Odds courtesy of OddsShark.com
Barring an absolute stunning trade offer from someone like the Miami Dolphins (think multiple first-round picks), the Cincinnati Bengals are going to take LSU quarterback Joe Burrow, the 2019 Heisman Trophy winner, at No. 1 overall on Thursday night. He will be the third LSU player to go first, following running back Billy Cannon in 1960 (to the Rams) and quarterback JaMarcus Russell in 2007 (to the Raiders). Russell was arguably the biggest bust in draft history.
Oddsmakers are so sure that Burrow will go first that he’s priced at -10000 to do so. That’s just to go first overall, not to a specific team. That’s an important designation to keep in mind on those props for a guy being selected at a certain spot. Trades are going to happen. Burrow will be the third straight Heisman Trophy-winning QB to go first, following Oklahoma’s Baker Mayfield in 2018 (to the Browns) and OU’s Kyler Murray last year (to the Cardinals).
The fun starts with the second quarterback drafted. Alabama’s Tua Tagovailoa is -115 on that prop with Oregon’s Justin Herbert at -125. Entering the 2019 college football season, Tua was the consensus projected top pick in the 2020 NFL Draft and in fact the Dolphins reportedly were “Tanking for Tua.” Burrow, incidentally, wasn’t even considered much of a pro prospect.
While Tua had a fabulous season for the Tide, he also suffered a major hip injury that required surgery, and that’s the one knock on the lefty: He can’t stay healthy. The Hawaiian had multiple surgeries in college. Miami, currently sitting at No. 5 overall, is the co-favorite on the “team to draft Tua Tagovailoa” prop along with the Los Angeles Chargers, who pick sixth, at +150.
There has been some scuttlebutt lately that the Dolphins might prefer Herbert, but that could be a giant smokescreen. Yet, Miami is also at -120 on the “team to draft Justin Herbert” prop followed by the Chargers at +110. Herbert is -115 to be the third quarterback off the board with Tua at even money and Utah State’s Jordan Love, essentially a first-round lock, at +350.
