Now that March is fast approaching, expect to hear the term “bubble team” plenty regarding those schools who are iffy for an NCAA Tournament at-large bid. Most bubble teams aren’t good enough to win their conference tournament and earn an automatic bid.
Odds courtesy of OddsShark.com
One such school is Mississippi State and the Bulldogs absolutely can’t afford to lose Tuesday night at home in SEC play against a mediocre-at-best Alabama team. MSU is a 3.5-point favorite. Mississippi State doesn’t have a very good resume in that it hasn’t beaten a ranked team and played a very weak non-conference schedule other than a loss to Villanova.
The Bulldogs also are playing for a possible top-four finish in the SEC and a double-bye in the conference tournament. Alabama is one of the highest-scoring teams in the country under first-year coach Nate Oats but are lousy on defense usually. The Tide routed visiting Mississippi State 90-69 on January 8. With the Bulldogs up 28-27, Bama ended the first half on a 15-6 run and never looked back. The Tide are 9-3 ATS in the past 12 meetings.
Another bubble team is NC State as the Wolfpack visit bitter rival North Carolina, which is having a shockingly bad season and is dead last in the ACC – that’s unheard of for them. However, the Heels can complete the season sweep of this series as they played one of their best games of the year January 27 in Raleigh, winning 75-65 behind 25 points and 11 rebounds from Garrison Brooks. It was UNC’s seventh straight road win in the series and improved Roy Williams to 31-4 against NC State in his time at Carolina. This time, UNC is -2.5 and it is 7-1 ATS in the past eight meetings.
Two teams without any bubble concerns are No. 2 Baylor and No. 5 San Diego State, although both were upset at home Saturday. Both could be looking at letdown/trap games Tuesday. The Bears had arguably the biggest home game in school history Saturday against No. 3 Kansas and lost 64-61 to fall out of the top spot in the poll. BU could be forgiven for being a bit flat at home Tuesday against a bad Kansas State side. The Cats are 6-1 ATS in their past seven against the Bears but are 14.5-point underdogs.
San Diego State had been the country’s only unbeaten team and long ago clinched the Mountain West regular-season title but lost Saturday to UNLV 66-63 to see a school-record 26-game winning streak end. SDSU plays its home finale on Tuesday against Colorado State. The Aztecs are 4-1 ATS in the past five against CSU and are -14.
