Here’s something that may surprise college football fans and bettors: The top-ranked team entering the College Football Playoff national semifinals has yet to win the championship. The No. 1 team has made it to the final three of five years, but Clemson lost in the title game following the 2015 season, and Alabama did after the 2016 and 2018 seasons. All three of those teams were unbeaten entering the title game.
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Does that mean potentially bad news for current CFP No. 1 LSU? The Tigers are +250 to win their first national championship since the 2007 season. LSU claimed the top spot with its impressive Week 11 victory at Alabama, ending the Crimson Tide’s 31-game home winning streak. The Tigers have yet to reach the College Football Playoff, but the only way they don’t this year is if they are upset in at least one of their final two regular-season games (home to Arkansas and Texas A&M – so very unlikely) and then lose in the SEC Championship Game to Georgia.
If LSU reaches the SEC title game with one loss and wins there, it’s still getting in. The CFP isn’t going to turn away the champion of college football’s best league.
Ohio State is No. 2 in the CFP rankings – new ones out Tuesday – and the Buckeyes are the +190 title favorites. OSU has simply been destroying people all season, but its toughest two games have yet to be played: This Saturday against No. 9 Penn State and November 30 at No. 15 Michigan. Still conceivable that the Buckeyes don’t even win the Big Ten East Division and miss the playoff entirely. Ohio State won the first CFP national title game following the 2014 season as a No. 4 seed.
The third-ranked team in the national semifinals has reached the title game only once: Following the 2017 season, No. 3 Georgia lost an overtime thriller to No. 4 Alabama. Defending national champion Clemson is the current No. 3 and is +275 to repeat. The Tigers appear to have by far the easiest path to the playoff playing in the very weak Atlantic Coast Conference. It’s so weak that any loss likely knocks Clemson out.
Alabama is the only school to make every playoff but is currently on the outside looking in at No. 5. The Tide are +1200 on the title odds and have lost superstar quarterback Tua Tagovailoa to a season-ending injury. The CFP committee will certainly take that into account. Bama has to win out to have any shot at the playoff but it still might not be enough.
