The first U.S. Democratic Presidential primary is months away still, but as the cable news industrial complex demands content, we’ve now wrapped up the fourth major debate. It might not have had the same fireworks as some of the previous debates, but a lot that happened still matters. We take a look at each of the candidates, care of PredictIt.org.
Elizabeth Warren was the front runner coming into this debate, with her shares trading at $0.44 to win the nomination. The first hour of the debate, where all the moderate candidates came after her hard, saw her slip down to $0.41, the lowest she’s been since September 21. She rebounded well though, partly due to a strong back and forth with Joe Biden, finishing the night at $0.45.
Speaking of Uncle Joe, Vice President Biden also had a positive night by mostly avoiding any pot shots from the lower ranked candidates. He started the day at $0.20, spiking up to $0.22 when Warren looked her worst. He’s since fallen back down to $0.21.
The person who profited most from the debate was clearly Vermont Senator Bernie Sanders. By coming out strong, proving his heart attack hasn’t made him lose any of his passion for left wing policies, he went from $0.07 at the start of the day to a current $0.13, the biggest rise of any candidate.
But this was a night of positives for all the front runners. Pete Buttigieg, who’s been the nice guy in the past three debates, got a bit aggressive attacking Senator Warren and was rewarded for it. His odds went from $0.08 earlier in the day to their current $0.11.
Not all of the candidates could improve though, and PredictIt punters have decided the losers were the moderate women. Kamala Harris and Amy Klobuchar both failed to impress, losing $0.01 to their odds. Hillary Clinton, who some people still hope will enter the race, also lost $0.01. The three sit at $0.04, $0.02 and $0.06 respectively.
Who looks like the strongest bets going forward? The top four frontrunners, certainly. Biden is worth some bets until Warren proves she will be solid despite being attacked. Bernie, now officially endorsed by Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, now has fresh life in his campaign. Warren is still the front runner and has the best odds of actually winning. Finally, if Buttigieg wants to get a presidential run done right the first time, there’s no better time to kick into high gear than a month or two before the Iowa caucuses.
