My favorite part about the college football playoffs is that it gives me a legitimate excuse to get my New Year’s Even drinking started at lunch time. Well, I didn’t really need an excuse but it makes me fell less like an alcoholic. The two games taking place on December 31st are absolutely epic and will cap off a tremendous year of sports betting. Here’s where I’m leaning. Good luck and enjoy.
CHICK-FIL-A PEACH BOWL
#1 ALABAMA CRIMSON TIDE -14.5 over #4 WASHINGTON HUSKIES
(UNDER 54.5)
This isn’t just one of the biggest games in the entire bowl season, the Chik-fil-A Peach Bowl also has the second largest spread of any post-season game in college football. This isn’t to suggest that Washington is bad. Alabama is simply that good.
But are they a logical take against a monster line while facing the fourth best team in the country?
That all depends on how you rank Washington and the Pac-12 in general. Most handicappers don’t happen to rate this conference that high. Stanford can be awesome at times, and USC has risen from the ashes. But the rest of the Pac-12 is made of joke programs in the big picture. Washington is where they are thanks to their one-loss record and a hefty +27.2 point differential.
This game essentially comes down to how well quarterback Jake Browning can play against the top rated defence in the country. Alabama gave up just 248.2 yards per game and 11.8 points against on average. That’s surreal. The scariest part for Browning is that they also gave up just 184.5 yards passing.
Browning was less-than-spectacular against Utah, USC and Colorado with a combined efficiency rate of just 38-of-80 completions. Sure, he was great against Stanford earlier in the year, but anyone who saw that game knows it was a bit of an outlier for the Huskies.
The fact that Browning began to fade towards the end of the year is a big red flag for me. He was atrocious against Colorado during a 41-10 blowout win. It’s just not the kind of momentum you want to see out of the most pivotal player on an underdog when they’re facing a behemoth like Alabama.
This game should be business as usual for the Crimson Tide, who have seemed hell bent on proving just how dominant they can be at every step and turn. Against betting lines of +/- 21.0 points or less, they have gone 5-2 ATS. Those two spread losses were against Mississippi in a barn burner, and Auburn where they won by +18.0 points while facing a line that was just two points higher.
For the most part, the oddsmakers have tried to pin Alabama in a corner and been relatively unsuccessful. The Tide went a brilliant 9-4 ATS overall and have rallied in every important game to blow their competition out of the water. There’s no reason to believe that the Huskies are the team to dent their perfect record.
Washington doesn’t do anything intrinsically special. They just play great football in a conference that doesn’t boast any true national title contenders. You can almost tell that the oddsmakers were waiting for the bow to break on them with lines of just +/- 6.0 against Washington State and +/- 8.5 against Colorado. The Huskies rose to the challenge in both of those games handedly, winning by +28.0 and +31.0.
Betting on Washington means that you’re hoping that they can keep it close, but that simply hasn’t been Alabama’s tendency this year. They’ve been smashing teams outright with no signs of remorse. Browning and Washington’s defence will have to have their best games ever and I just can’t see that happening on a grand stage that Alabama is totally used to earning a living on.
There a lot of you that probably want to see the empire of Nick Saban lose, but he’s groomed this team to play at a level that has been rare in college football. And he’s been doing it all year. To put this as softly as I can, Washington doesn’t stand a chance.
This will be a statement game for the Alabama defence more than anything, and Browning won’t do enough damage to give his team the momentum it requires to push the OVER.
PLAYSTATION FIESTA BOWL
#3 OHIO STATE BUCKEYS -3.0 over #2 CLEMSON TIGERS
(OVER 59.5)
The Clemson Tigers have a steeper uphill climb in this game than people want to admit. It’s one thing to struggle towards the end of the year against a grizzled conference like the Big Ten, but Clemson was insanely inconsistent against the ACC through the last two months of the year. That should be sending people running for the hills of Ohio State.
That’s not happening. Nearly two-thirds of the betting community is leaning hard on Clemson to either keep this game close, or upset the Buckeyes. For me, it’s just too difficult to figure out which Clemson team is going to show up. Is it the one that dismantled South Carolina and Wake Forest by combined scores of 91-20, or is it the won that barely beat Virginia Tech and lost outright to Pittsburgh?
Inconsistency has derailed Clemson for me and it starts with quarterback Deshaun Watson, who remains mercurial at the position but has become highly erratic. The Heisman candidate has tossed 5 interceptions in his last four games, and you can’t afford to make mistakes against the Buckeyes. Ohio State is the 5th best defence in the country in terms of yards allowed, giving up just 286.0 overall. They’re also surrendering just 14.2 points against on average, good enough for third in the country.
Quality of competition has everything to do with determining the best team to bet on in a playoff format. The only blemish on Ohio State’s record was against #5 Penn State on the road. That’s a completely excusable loss compared to Clemson dropping a game against Pittsburgh.
Beyond that the Buckeyes have been ground through the gauntlet of the Big Ten by outlasting Michigan State on the road and edging Michigan in an overtime classic. If you need a team that can win big games, Ohio State is perfect. Urban Meyer is the catalyst for that kind of success having gone 7-2 SU in 9 bowl games during his incredible coaching career.
Listen, you can pick whomever you want in this matchup. But if you want the real money maker, you have to bet on Meyer. Clemson has been all over the map and are running in to the best defence in the country not wearing Alabama jerseys. Deshaun Watson is electric enough to help push the OVER in this, but J.T. Barrett and the Buckeyes will seize control of this game when it matters.
Simply put, you bet on Urban Meyer in the post season…unless he’s maybe facing Nick Saban.
