A lot of other writers who produce power rankings are scared to move teams up from the bottom to the top too quickly. Not me. If you’re covering against the spread, beating decent competition and producing consistently then I’m going to reward you for it. Listen, nothing in this season makes any sense so compiling lists like this is no easy feat.
To put things in perspective, the Vikings are the best team in the NFC. Atlanta might be the second best. Nobody was ready to say that in the preseason when Teddy Bridgewater went down and Mohamed Sanu was the biggest acquisition for the dirty birds. So stay with me here, we’re just trying to get a grip on reality.
1. New England Patriots (3-1 SU and ATS)
The bottom crapped out for the Patriots over the weekend against the Buffalo Bills in a game that won’t have any impact on the remainder of the season. It might actually be the only loss this team suffers for the remainder of the year. I’m dead serious about that.
Next Game: New England -10.5 at Cleveland
2. Denver Broncos (4-0 SU and ATS)
I wonder if Mark Sanchez watched Trevor Siemian and Paxton Lynch this weekend thinking to himself, “that could’ve been me.”
Next Game: Atlanta at Denver -5.5
3. Minnesota Vikings (4-0 SU and ATS)
Mike Zimmer is the freaking coach of the year if he can get Sam Bradford to the NFC Championship.
Next Game: Houston at Minnesota -6.5
4. Philadelphia Eagles (3-0 SU and ATS)
Doug Pederson might also be the coach of the year if he can get a rookie quarterback to the promised land with a guy named Wendell Smallwood as their starting running back.
Next Game: Philadelphia -3.0 at Detroit
5. Pittsburgh Steelers (3-1 SU and ATS)
I absolutely love reading about how Le’Veon Bell was the “missing piece” that Pittsburgh needed. You mean, the guy who everyone drafts in the first five picks of fantasy? The dude that everyone knows is awesome? Their second best player? That guy? Listen, I’m as happy as any fan to see him back but we all know Big Ben is the most important cog in this machine.
Next Game: NYJ at Pittsburgh -7.0
6. Green Bay Packers (2-1 SU and ATS)
Aaron Rodgers has an unreal quarterback rating of 110.2 when playing at home. That’s the highest all-time. By the way, Green Bay plays the Giants, Cowboys and Bears in their next three games.
Next Game: NYG at Green Bay -7.5 (Sunday Night)
7. Cincinnati Bengals (2-2 SU and ATS)
Look at their line for next week. That’s ludicrous. Burfict is back. AJ Green is on fire. The Bengals are really good, and the rest of the league isn’t. Take advantage of the oddsmakers’ stupidity at your own discretion.
Next Game: Cincinnati -1.0 at Dallas
8. Houston Texans (3-1 SU and ATS)
I don’t’ like this team without a playmaker like J.J. Watt on defence, but this offence is really good and that counts for something in betting. The public doesn’t like Brock Osweiler, and nobody really should, but he’s leading a very balanced attack that has threats everywhere. This is a home run hitting team, and those are hard to come by this season.
Next Game: Houston at Minnesota -6.5
9. Atlanta Falcons (3-1 SU and ATS)
Was Harry Douglas really holding this team back that much? The Falcons are averaging a mind boggling 38.0 points per game so far, which is made even more impressive when you realize that’s a whole touchdown more than the next two teams on the list (Philadelphia and San Diego). I still prefer this team as the best OVER bet in the league but if you want to take a whiff on them as a spread covering dynamo then go right ahead. You can do a lot worse.
Next Game: Atlanta at Denver -5.5
10. Seattle Seahawks (3-1 SU and 2-2 ATS)
Jimmy Graham lives! And with him, the Seahawks have been reborn as a stealthy passing team. They’re a prime example – along with Minnesota and Denver – of the liberties you can take offensively when you have one of the best defences in the league. Wilson’s evolution in to a pocket passer this season isn’t something you should ignore.
Next Game BYE WEEK
11. Oakland Raiders (3-1 SU and ATS)
The Jagged Little Pill Team of 2016. They’re the toughest bet to swallow only because I think that they’re too inconsistent on both sides of the ball. They can blow up the best statistical defence in the league for four touchdowns, or completely vanish. It’s a young team. Take your chances but tread lightly.
Next Game: San Diego at Oakland -3.5
12. Dallas Cowboys (3-1 SU and ATS)
Does Cole Beasley remind anyone else of what Wes Welker might have looked like if he had made different decisions in college?
Next Game: Cincinnati -1.0 at Dallas
13. Los Angeles Rams (3-1 SU and ATS)
What else am I supposed to do?! They’re one of seven teams with a 3-1 ATS record. Their defence has come alive and they’re pumping out wins even without Todd Gurley doing Todd Gurley things. This season is a mess. I’m so confused.
Next Game: Buffalo at Los Angeles -2.5
14. Carolina Panthers (1-3 SU and ATS)
Yup, you can now just launch yourself at an opposing team’s quarterback and knock him out of the game because he has to undergo the protocol. Even with all the scientific advancements and new rules designed to protect players, we’ve somehow reverted back to the 1970’s but with way more middle men in the process.
Next Game: Tampa Bay at Carolina (Monday Night)
15. Baltimore Ravens (3-1 SU and 2-2 ATS)
Poor Justin Forsett. He went from being one of the most coveted free agents two years ago, to cut twice by the same time in the same season.
Next Game: Washington at Baltimore -3.5
16. Washington Redskins (2-2 SU and ATS)
People want a hard line opinion about the Washington Redskins, but truthfully they’re what they’ve always been – a spot bet. Last year they went 9-7 ATS and torched the betting line for the last half. The year prior, they went 5-11 ATS after going 11-5 ATS in 2013. But all this being said, they’re far better than anyone wants to give them credit for. Except me. I’ve been giving them some half-credits all season.
Next Game: Washington at Baltimore -3.5
17. Buffalo Bills (2-2 SU and ATS)
I don’t want to admit that the Buffalo Bills might actually be good so I’m not going to even though I might have just done that.
Next Game: Buffalo at Los Angeles -2.5
18. Kansas City Chiefs (2-2 SU and ATS)
The worst part about getting burned down the ground on national television is having a week off so your family and friends can make fun of you. Especially if you’re cornerback Steven Nelson who got picked on like it was recess and Mike Tomlin didn’t want him to grow up thinking he’d be special.
Next Game: BYE WEEK
19. New York Jets (1-3 SU and ATS)
Maybe the Jets were on to something when they didn’t offer Fitzpatrick a long-term deal.
Next Game: NYJ at Pittsburgh -7.0
20. Arizona Cardinals (1-3 SU and ATS)
Drew Stanton. That is all. Welcome to your living nightmare, Arizona. It’s not like everyone’s going to see how bad your team sucks on national television anytime soon.
Next Game: Arizona -4.0 at San Francisco (Thursday)
21. San Diego Chargers (1-3 SU and 2-2 ATS)
After blowing yet another fourth quarter lead, the Chargers might be the greatest team to live bet against if they’re up on the scoreboard with time left on the clock.
Next Game: San Diego at Oakland -3.5
22. New York Giants (2-2 SU and 1-3 ATS)
People might not understand why head coach Tom Coughlin was so important to the team’s core. Odell Beckham Jr. turning in to a team cancer overnight should probably offer some insight.
Next Game: NYG at Green Bay -7.5 (Sunday Night)
23. Jacksonville Jaguars (1-3 SU and 2-2 ATS)
24. Indianapolis Colts (1-3 SU and ATS)
I woke up early to catch this game and immediately regretted my decision. The bad news is that I couldn’t go back to bed. The good news is that I finally organized the garage. Actually that’s just what I told my wife. I just sat in there and cried because I was up so early for no reason on a Sunday.
Next Game: Chicago at Indianapolis -4.5
25. Detroit Lions (1-3 SU and ATS)
I’ve had it with the Lions. I want to be optimistic about the most tortured franchise in the NFC, but that somehow leads me to forget that Jim Caldwell is still their head coach. I feel like people are so tired of beating up on Caldwell for being an inept team builder that we don’t even bother anymore. In 2009, he inherited a Super Bowl contending team that went 14-2 and lost to the Saints in the championship game before getting precipitately worse for two more years before going 2-14. Same thing’s happening in Detroit.
Next Game: Philadelphia -3.0 at Detroit
26. New Orleans Saints (1-3 SU and 2-2 ATS)
Betting against Drew Brees in his long awaited return to San Diego was probably one of the dumbest things I’ve done in a long time. It didn’t even cross my mind. That game served as a reminder that the football gods love Drew Brees.
Next Game: BYE WEEK
27. Tennessee Titans (1-3 SU and ATS)
If the Titans can’t take a step forward, Marcus Mariota may never really recover. He’s getting the David Carr treatment right now and we all know how that went.
Next Game: Tennessee at Miami -3.5
28. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (1-3 SU and ATS)
Unlike most teams at the bottom of the barrel, the Bucs don’t actually have an excuse for being this bad. Sure, Doug Martin is out for a little while, but other teams have survived some major injuries thus far. They’ve also accomplished something miraculous in allowing just 354.2 yards against, which ranks 15th and the second-most points against this season. They’re so bad that even God tried to cancel their game against Denver. “Just go home, people. Why are you even here?”
Next Game: Tampa Bay at Carolina (Monday Night)
29. Chicago Bears (1-3 SU and ATS)
I’m happy for Brian Hoyer getting the Josh McCown treatment in Chicago but it’s downright ludicrous that the Bears don’t have an actual development project in the wings behind Jay Cutler. And it took all of two games for talk of Hoyer keeping the starting job if he plays well to start piping up.
Next Game: Chicago at Indianapolis -4.5
30. Cleveland Browns (1-3 SU and ATS)
So nobody has a hot take on “Terrelle Pryor is what Tim Tebow could have been if he wasn’t so scared of getting hit?” Goddamn, the Browns are going to be awful again this year but Pryor at least makes them fun to watch. I loved how he beat up Josh Norman all Sunday afternoon.
Next Game: New England -10.5 at Cleveland
31. San Francisco 49ers (1-3 SU and ATS)
Don’t worry, San Francisco. It’s not like you just lost your best real player.
(For what it’s worth, I think they can actually beat Arizona on Thursday night. I’m taking them as a four-point dog without blinking.)
Next Game: Arizona -4.0 at San Francisco (Thursday)
32. Miami Dolphins (1-3 SU and ATS)
I know that Adam Gase probably really wanted to be a head coach more than anything else, but he probably should’ve done more research about Miami. The usual backtrack for a fired head coach is to land as an offensive coordinator, or at the very least a quarterbacks coach. Joe Philbin is now an offensive line coach in Indy (great job, by the way) and Dan Campbell is coaching tight ends in New Orleans. It’s the curse of Ryan Tannehill.
Next Game: Tennessee at Miami -3.5
