Sports books are still dealing the New England Patriots as -1 favorites. I’m guessing that all this brouhaha about those deflated balls during the AFC title game hasn’t dampened the Pats’ outlook ahead of the big game. Not that it should because all the controversy surrounding this deflated balls really is being blown way out of proportion. But hey, people need to have stories to write and fans need something to talk about, right?
God forbid, but with the Super Bowl still 10 days away, we need as many storylines as we can get. So we’ll settle for the DeflateGate, at least until a real narrative comes out. But for now, all the controversy surrounding those deflated balls hasn’t turned off people from betting on New England. Now here’s the question: is this really the actual number or are the Seahawks getting tremendous value right now without anybody noticing it?
The simple answer is “no” and “yes”.
See, a lot happened during the conference championship games. Seattle had to come back from 16 points against the Green Bay Packers whereas the New England Patriots steamrolled the Indianapolis Colts, deflated balls or not. The short-sighted view would be to interpret those results in a manner that put the Seahawks in a vulnerable light and the Pats as the all-conquering powerhouse.
Not surprisingly, that’s exactly what happened because the Seahawks went from -2.5 favorites to 1-point underdogs, even before the Pats-Colts game finished. The public bet on New England pretty heavily and if there was ever a smart play at this point in time, it would be to take the Seahawks as the short underdogs.
That or you can opt to hold off on taking any action and wait for the public to continue pounding on the Patriots. That could drive the number up to -2 for New England, or maybe even -2.5. There is a precedent for this and it actually happened just last year when bettors were all over the Denver Broncos in the two weeks leading up to the Super Bowl. We all know what happened after that. Nevada sportsbooks ended up posting $19.6 million in winnings.
So is it possible that Seattle’s being overlooked yet again? You bet it is.