The NFC North was arguably the most exciting division to watch last season. Green Bay, Chicago and Detroit gave us their own kinds of roller coaster rides last year and the Minnesota Vikings, well, they had Adrian Peterson, who is really a show on his own. This season, I expect more of the same in this division. Rodgers is back healthy after missing six games last season. The Bears are in the second year of Marc Trestman’s offense. The Detroit Lions have a new coach, which should make them a little more disciplined if nothing else. And the Minnesota Vikings still have Adrian Peterson. Nuff said on that end.
Can the Bears offense carry its defense?
That question isn’t a typo. It’s also not wrong to ask considering that the state of affairs in Chicago have changed dramatically in recent years. Long known for its dominant defense, the Chicago Bears enter the season with serious questions on that side of the ball. Many of its stalwarts have either retired or switched teams, leaving the defense as vulnerable as it’s been in a long time. On the other side of the ball, the Bears offense is as potent as it’s ever been, capable of outscoring opponents. Unfortunately, that’s exactly what it has to do if it hopes of staying competitive in the NFC North. Jay Cutler says he’s feeling the best he’s ever been in his career. Sure, that’s become an annual thing for the guy, but you can’t blame his confidence this year, especially when he has Brandon Marshall and Alshon Jeffery both out wide and Matt Forte just behind him. There’s reason to be optimistic that Chicago can improve on its 8th ranked total offense from last year, which is why I’m not putting anything past the Bears this year. It certainly helps that it plays in a division without any standout defensive units and its .496 strength of schedule this season puts it right in the middle of the pack. If Cutler and Co. live up to the hype, Chicago could be dangerous this season.
Will the real Detroit Lions please stand up?
The Detroit Lions had to win just one of their last three games last season to make the playoffs. They lost all three. Head coach Mike Schwartz lost his job because of it and it’s about time the Lions finally go into a new direction. The past regime just didn’t exercise enough authority and accountability for people to take the Lions seriously. Discipline issues abounded and their uneven play made them one of the most frustrating teams to watch last year. Jim Caldwell should be enough of an upgrade to make the Lions play better but I’m not confident that he’s enough of a disciplinarian to clean out all the excess baggage that weighed on the team under the Schwartz’s regime. Matthew Stafford should find his arm again and Calvin Johnson is a beast with a capital B. The big question is how Stafford can utilize all of Detroit’s offensive weapons without relying too much on Megatron. Reggie Bush should help a lot if he’s healthy and the addition of Golden Tate, fresh off of winning the Super Bowl with the Seattle Seahawks, gives them a championship presence they’ve lacked since forever. It’s hard to make a case that it’s a make-or-break season for Detroit because of the new coaching staff but if there’s a season the Lions can shed its underachieving tag, it’s this one.
Can Adrian Peterson carry the Vikings (again)?
Here’s an interesting tidbit about the Minnesota Vikings. Last year, they only won five games in the regular season, but somehow, they went and covered nine games throughout the season. That’s an indication of a team that’s a little better than what their record showed. While I don’t expect the Vikings suddenly reverting to being a powerhouse again, I am confident that they’ll remain competitive enough to cover games, even if they lose a majority of them again. A big part of my confidence is because of Adrian Peterson, who you may have probably heard of a time or two. Remember, Minnesota is only a season removed from making the playoffs, thanks to All Day’s otherworldly 2,000-yard campaign. The addition of first-year coach Mike Zimmer and rookie QB Teddy Bridgewater is an upgrade over what they had last year with Leslie Frazier and Christian Ponder, even though it’s entirely premature to put the responsibility on Bridgewater to lead the team back to the postseason. If Minnesota have a chance, it’s going to have to come from the legs of Peterson. He’s done it in the past and for the sake of Vikings fans everywhere (Go Vikes, yeah?) All Day needs to show up every Sunday for Minny to have a chance at playing meaningful games in January.
Are the Packers the most undervalued team in the NFL?
It sounds weird putting the Green Bay Packers in the same sentence as undervalued, but with the love fest going on in the NFC West plus the pre–season hype surrounding the New Orleans Saints, Aaron Rodgers and the Pack are, in fact, being shafted on the attention. That might be the opening sharps they are looking for to pounce on Green Bay as early as now. Remember, the Packers were in control of the NFC North last season when Rodgers went down with an injury and missed six weeks. That opened the door for the Lions and the Bears to move ahead of Green Bay and into the postseason race. This year, Rodgers is back healthy and when he’s upright, he can make a serious case as being the best quarterback in the NFL. The emergence of Eddie Lacy means that Rodgers won’t have to carry the entire offensive load in this team, which should only make them more dangerous in the long run. Green Bay has value written all over it and that Week 1 game against the Seahawks will show whether they belong in that conversation among the elite teams. However, as early as now, look at Green Bay’s 14/1 odds to win the Super Bowl and tell me they’re not ripe to be bet on.
Total Wins
The Packers have the highest total wins line at 10.5, two wins clear of the Bears and the Lions at 8.5. Does that paint a picture as a sign of things to come? I’m betting it does. Green Bay has a chance of at least 11 wins while the Bears and the Lions probably cap out at 10 wins apiece. Of the two teams, I like Chicago to get to that 8-10 wins range on the strength of its offense playing against the softer schedule compared to Detroit. Put it this way: if the shoe were in the other foot and it was Chicago playing on a new offense and Detroit having had a year under it already, I’d pick the Lions. But continuity, no matter how short, plays a part in this equation. So give me Marc Trestman’s boys at 9 wins with the Lions probably settling for 8. An over pick on the Vikings’ 6.5-win total line is tempting but I’m not confident about its chances against any of its three division rivals. Anything less than three division wins could doom Minnesota’s chance of even making it to 7 wins.
Division Odds
Again, it’s Green Bay in the driver’s seat at 4/5 odds to win the NFC North. I honestly expected the odds to be lower, but that only means more value for Chicago and Detroit, both of which have been penciled at 3/1 odds. Meanwhile, it’s going to take short of a miracle for Minnesota to win the division at 16/1 odds. I wouldn’t put it past them if injuries derail all three of its rivals, but that’s a lot to ask for if you’re Minnesota. And that’s not even counting the scenario wherein the Vikings themselves fall into that bug.
Title Odds
I am optimistic for the Chicago Bear at 33/1 odds. Then I remembered that its dominant defense in the mid 2000’s is gone. I’m not as sold on the Detroit Lions at 40/1 and the Minnesota Vikings at 80/1 odds. Both teams are under new head coaches and even if Caldwell’s track record suggests a first-year run to the Super Bowl like he did with Indianapolis in 2010, he doesn’t have Peyton Manning calling the shots at under center. He’s got a rookie who, while I like, is still years away from becoming a QB capable of leading the team to a playoff run. Then there’s Green Bay at 14/1 odds. Like I said, that’s a bargain and I predict it going down as the season progresses. Grab it while it’s hot.
Predicted Order of Finish
A healthy Aaron Rodgers makes Green Bay the favorite the win the division. It still has a porous defense, but Rodgers is Rodgers. He’s one of the best quarterbacks in the league and is one of a handful of players who can carry a team all by himself. The Bears will give the Packers a run for their money, but it has a worse defense than Green Bay, which is unfathomable for any self-respecting Bears fan. As good as Chicago’s offense is, Rodgers is that much better.
1. Green Bay
2. Chicago
3. Detroit
4. Minnesota
