Every year, it looks like the Superbowl winners will be between one or two pre-season favourites. The titans of the game who go into the 
action with the best roster always seem to look like top picks on paper. But ball games aren’t won on paper. Titles are only handed to the team who put in the work through blood, sweat and tears on any given Sunday.
Which pre-season favourites have fallen at the first fence, and which others have gone on to make a falling pitch into the end zone look like a piece of Superbowl pizza pie? Here are all the pre-season picks, with the eventual winners odds from pre-season too.
2010 – Indianapolis Colts (8/1) – Lost in Wild Card Play-Offs
While the Colts won the AFC South division title for the seventh time in eight seasons, they were pipped 17-16 by the New York Jets in the Wild Card round of the postseason playoffs, which transpired to be legendary player Peyton Manning’s final game in a Colts jersey.
Winners – Green Bay Packers (11/1)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2Q4JP-HR9SY
2011 – New England Patriots (5/1)
Nine years ago, the Patriots were the red hot favourites going into the season, but they fell at the final furlong, losing Superbowl 47 to the unfancied New York Giants. In the Superbowl itself, The Giants took a quick 9-0 lead, but the Patriots roared back, scoring 17 unanswered points. It was to be a false dawn, as the Giants scored a dozen points without reply to seize the victory at long odds.
Winners – New York Giants (22/1)
2012 – Green Bay Packers (6/1)
Going into the next season, the Green Bay Packers had overtaken the Patriots in the betting, though only by a slim margin. The Packers, however, would be beaten 45-31 by the San Francisco 49ers in the playoffs. The 49ers made the Superbowl themselves but were edged out 34-31 as the Baltimore Ravens built a huge lead of 28-6 and despite a late flurry from the 49ers, held on.
Winners – Baltimore Ravens (16/1)
2013 – Denver Broncos (6/1)
In a tight pre-season betting market, the Denver Broncos were the bookies favourites, coming in at 6/1 before the season’s kick-off. Everything looked to be going to plan until the Superbowl itself, when the Seattle Seahawks won by the largest margin in NFL history, it being the first occasion one team scored 40 and restricted their opponents to single digits. To say it was one-sided is an understatement; the Seahawks were 36-0 up during the third quarter.
Winners – Seattle Seahawks (8/1)
2014 – Seattle Seahawks (9/2)
The Seahawks went into the next season as the biggest favourites in some time but were unable to seal back-to-back Superbowl wins. They got very close, however. Making it all the way to Superbowl 49, the Seahawks were 24-14 up after the third quarter, but Tom Brady dragged them back into the lead before a game-saving interception by undrafted rookie Malcolm Butler gave the Patriots the win with just 26 seconds left on the clock.
Winners – New England Patriots (13/2)
2015 – Seattle Seahawks (9/2)
Highly fancied for the second year in a row, the Seattle Seahawks fell in the divisional playoffs, losing in a shock defeat to the Carolina Panthers. The Panthers made it all the way to the Superbowl, but couldn’t seal the deal, with the Denver Broncos winning Superbowl 50, with linebacker Von Miller named Superbowl MVP.
Winners – Denver Broncos (9/1)
2016 – New England Patriots (6/1, Winners)
The year that the favourites won, the New England Patriots were the bookies favourites ahead of the Green Bay Packers, Arizona Cardinals and Seattle Seahawks (all 8/1) and headed to the Superbowl in fearsome form as class told. At the NRG Stadium in Texas, the game would becoe known as “28-3” thanks to the Atlanta Falcons having exactly that lead in the third quarter. Thanks in no small part to the partnership between legendary coach Bill Belichick and quarterback Tom Brady dragged the Patriots first to level after the regular time, then to victory in overtime as Brady, with 466 passing yards, was named Super Bowl MVP for a record fourth time.
2017 – New England Patriots (6/1)
Tom Brady and the Patriots were shocked in Superbowl 52 as the Philadelphia Eagles won 41-33 in a topsy-turvy game for the ages. Despite leading at the end of every quarter, the Eagles never safe, and it took a failed Hail Mary pass from Brady at the death to confirm the victory.
The Philadelphia Eagles were one of the biggest outsiders to win the Superbowl in many years, and it was an appropriate half-time show as Justin Timberlake performed. It would by the Patriots crying a river as the game ended.
Winners – Philadelphia Eagles (40/1)
2018 – New England Patriots (6/1, Winners)
Brady and the Patriots got their revenge in 2018, in the lowest-scoring Superbowl in history. Winning 13-3 against the L.A. Rams, a largely forgettable postseason culminated in a bore-fest, Superbowl 53 becoming the first ever to feature no touchdowns at all in the first three quarters.
2019 – New England Patriots (4/1)
The 100th NFL season and last Superbowl to date, 2019 saw the pre-season favourites the shortest odds in the last 10 years, as Tom Brady’s Patriots went into the action red hot with the bookies. As it would happen, however, it would be a season of shocks, with the Patriots dumped out of the reckoning by Tennessee in the first round of the playoffs. The eventual winners were the clear second-favourites from the pre-season, the Kansas City Chiefs, but they did it the very hard way.
In the most recent Superbowl, the Chiefs were able to beat the San Francisco 49ers, but only after an almighty scare. 20-10 down with just one quarter to go and after a 10-0 loss in the third quarter the Chiefs looked beaten but an astonishing 21 unanswered points in the final quarter saw the home. The MVP was the Chiefs’ quarterback Patrick Mahomes, the youngest-ever winner of the award.
Winners – Kansas City Chiefs (6/1)
Overall, the average pre-season favourite will kick off the season at just short of 6/1. But the odds of the winner of the last 10 Superbowls, averaged out across the decade is a shade over 13/1 – over twice the odds. When it comes to backing a team to go all the way, it’s worth looking elsewhere to the clear pre-season favourites, who have only won twice in the last decade – both times thanks to the golden arm of Tom Brady.
