Just as quickly as the Democratic primary process started (thanks for nothing, Iowa), the next few days may help put an end to it all. U.S. Presidential candidates are anxiously looking forward to South Carolina’s results on February 29, and March 3’s Super Tuesday, when 14 states will cast their ballots. By the end of everything, over one third of delegates will have been cast, and based on current polls, we may have an overwhelming favorite. We’re taking a look at all the election odds Bodog has to offer.
After failing to win the first three contests, former Vice President Joe Biden is the heavy favorite to win South Carolina. An acceptable debate performance, combined with a torrent of attacks on Bernie Sanders, has seen him surge in the polls. Bodog has him at -1200, Sanders at +600, with all other candidates listed as long shots at +10000.
Democratic Drop outs
With so many candidates listed as long shots, Bodog also ask who will drop out of the race next. Tulsi Gabbard is a slight favorite at +145, followed by millionaire Tom Steyer at +250 and Amy Klobuchar at +300. After that, front runners Elizabeth Warren (+900), Biden (+2000), Mike Bloomberg (+2000), Pete Buttigieg (+2000) and Sanders (+10000) seem unlikely.
Bodog also asks if Warren, Biden, Steyer or Klobuchar will drop out before Super Tuesday. Of the group, Steyer (Yes, -450) and Klobuchar (Yes, -1600) give the best odds. The other two, with money and polls to back them up, could last a few days.
Looking at individual states of Super Tuesday, unless South Carolina changes something quickly, it looks like it will be a great night for Bernie Sanders. He’s favored to win in California (-1400), Colorado (-1400), Maine (-550), Massachusetts (-250), Minnesota (-110), Texas (-115), Utah (-1600), Vermont (-10000) and Virginia (-160). Joe Biden leads him in Arkansas (-130), North Carolina (-145), Oklahoma (+105), Tennessee (-215) and Alabama (-750).
Where Sanders leads, a mix of Biden, Klobuchar, Warren and Bloomberg trail him in second place, suggesting they may split delegates all over the place. But where Biden leads, only Sanders occupies second place. Combine that with the majority of nine states where he leads, and Sanders is the clear front runner.
Bodog has already checked my math, and their odds for who will win the nomination agrees. Sanders is the leader at EVEN, trialed by Biden at +275 and Bloomberg at +450. They’re followed by Buttigieg’s +1400, Hillary Clinton with a surprise run at +3000, Warren at +5000, a miracle entry by Michelle Obama at +10000, Klobuchar at +25000, and Steyer and Gabbard at crazy long odds, +50000 a piece.
With Sanders being the only candidate with favorable odds to win at this point, Bodog is also offering odds on his potential VP pick. Nina Turner, a former state senator, leads at +185. She’s followed by failed Georgia Gubernatorial candidate Stacey Abrams at +265, Wisconsin Senator Tammy Baldwin at +400, California Senator and failed presidential candidate Kamala Harris at +550, Gabbard at +600 and former Obama cabinet member Julian Castro at +1100.
That being said, Sanders isn’t really even favored to win the nomination. Bodog has odds on a brokered convention, where the nominee can’t secure a majority of delegates on a first vote and delegates are allowed to pool their votes for another candidate. The odds of that happening are -145, whereas a clean cut nomination is currently a slight dog at +110.