It would be hard to say that anybody expected the Iowa Caucuses to settle the 2020 U.S. Democratic Primary, but at least we expected it to resolve itself fairly quickly. Now after several days of waiting, we know that it’s essentially a tie between Bernie Sanders and Pete Buttigieg. With another debate this weekend, and the New Hampshire primary early next week, it’s the perfect time to look once again at the top candidates’ odds.
First, to take a very high level view, the Iowa Caucuses, maybe because they took forever to resolve, didn’t change very much for Bernie Sanders. He was favored to win, and by some metrics, he did. If anything, the results helped remove some candidates from the field, putting Joe Biden especially in a tough position.
Looking at a map of the country from PredictIt, we can tell quickly that Sanders has the edge. His favored states are in red, with darker shades indicating he’s heavily favored to win.
Image care of PredicIt.org
What’s startling is how few states are favored for anyone else. Biden has five states in the bible belt, Buttigieg has Iowa thanks to his slight lead in State Delegate Equivalents, and Bloomberg ranks second overall to win the nomination thanks to hope that a centrist could save the day.
For the overall nomination, Bodog has increased Sanders odds from +160 last week to +140 now. Despite his shared win, Buttigieg only gets +450, trailing Bloomberg’s +375. Biden has fallen all the way to +500, with Warren effectively out of this race at +1200.
Looking at New Hampshire specifically, Sanders is a lock to win. PredictIt has him priced at $0.71, with Buttigieg a distant second at $0.30. Biden leads the long shots at $0.04.
Nevada isn’t much different, with Sanders leading at $0.69. There, Buttigieg fairs even worse with a price of $0.21, as Biden has retained some support and keeps a price of $0.14.
If this race is going to turn against Sanders, it may have to be in South Carolina, the final primary before Super Tuesday. There, Biden retains a lead in PredicIt odds at $0.44. Sanders is quickly catching up though, currently at $0.39. Buttigieg is climbing, but still remains a distant third at $0.13.
Although Buttigieg and Sanders effectively tied in Iowa, none of these odds suggest Buttigieg will make the next few races nearly as close. It may take a miracle for the centrists of the party to beat out the socialist candidate
