Democratic Primary Odds: #CNNisTrash declares Warren winner of first 2020 debate

Democratic Primary Odds: #CNNisTrash declares Warren winner of first 2020 debate

Democratic Primary Odds: #CNNisTrash declares Warren winner of first 2020 debateThe final Democratic primary debate before the first contest, the Iowa Caucuses, has wrapped up. For Everyone outside Iowa, that was our last chance to judge the candidates before they’ll be judged for us by the thousands of Iowans choosing their candidates. We’re taking a look at action taking place over at PredictIt for which Democrats will win the Democratic nomination.

But before diving in, let’s take a wide view of how the debate went. Thanks to horrible moderating and obvious bias shown, #CNNisTrash was one of the top trending terms in the U.S. on Tuesday night. It’s not hard to see why.

https://twitter.com/TonyClementsTC/status/1217312460685877248

The bias, against Bernie Sanders and for Elizabeth Warren, was very apparent. This may be because Warren fed them the story of the week: that Sanders had told her she had no chance to win two years ago. But Sanders has had a hard time getting positive press from CNN for a long time, so it could be more than that.

At the conclusion of the debate, which was co-hosted by CNN, all CNN panelists agreed that Warren was the winner, having had her best debate performance of the campaign. I personally think she was stronger in the early debates: it’s harder to make Sanders, Biden and Buttigieg look like a fool at this stage. There were three basic conclusions you could reach, depending on what part of the political spectrum you fell in:

Of course, most of the media attention will come down to the exchange above, between Warren and Sanders. Sanders doesn’t appear to have been hurt by the exchange except for a small dip immediately after the debate, from $0.32 to $0.30. But he’s since rebounded back to $0.32, an improvement from the $0.21 he was at when we last checked in.

This was just the kind of spotlight Warren needed to have a chance in this campaign. CNN fawning over her pumped her price from $0.10 to $0.13. This is still down from the $0.15 she was at when we looked at her in December, but maybe two weeks is enough for the establishment to build her up as a preferred progressive candidate.

Coming off of a strong set of poll numbers, and with his rivals totally distracted from his front runner status, Joe Biden was left untouched during the debate. So when FiveThirtyEight suggests he “won,” they mean everybody else lost. Before and after the debate, he hovered between $0.38 and $0.39, both much better than his $0.29 in December. If he wins Iowa and New Hampshire, this race is over if you ask me.

But the one person who needs to win Iowa totally squandered this debate. Pete Buttigieg, who has done best when he comes out with fire, seemed like your average boring politician on Tuesday. His odds went from $0.09 to $0.08, continuing a slide from the $0.15 high he had in December.

So what are we looking for in the next two weeks, and the Iowa Caucus? I think Warren and Buttigieg need surprisingly strong showings to stay in this race, or they are pretty much done. The same might be true for Sanders, but he’s got enough money to fight Biden for a while, and that could keep it fun