US Democratic debate odds: Will Joe Biden hug anyone?

TAGs: US 2020 election

The first U.S. Democratic primary has come and gone, and depending on which political analyst you like, several of the candidates might have won the night. Most agree that Elizabeth Warren, the frontrunner of the first 10 candidates, fared pretty well. Beto O’Rourke shocked everyone, Cory Booker especially, by kicking off the linguistic Olympics. New York Mayor Bill DeBlasio, confident in his progressive platform, got the hashtag #hornyforbilldeblasio trending.

US Democratic debate odds: Will Joe Biden hug anyone?But everyone knows that this was just the appetizer. The main course will be June 27, when frontrunners Joe Biden and Bernie Sanders take the debate stage, and Bodog has a nice selection of odds for what will happen.

Andrew Yang, who notably can’t speak Spanish very well, is the subject of our first prop. The entrepreneur is a big advocate for a Universal Basic Income (UBI), so his prop is an over/under of how many times he will mention this key policy. It’s even odds (20/23) that he will mention the policy more or less than two times. I like the over, and I expect him to bring it up on at least two questions unrelated to the topic, likely negotiations with Iran and the possible impeachment of Donald Trump.

The next prop concerns the young Mayor of South Bend, Indiana, Pete Buttigieg, and an over/under of how many times other candidates will mispronounce his last name, with the number set at 1.5. Odds favor the under (1/4), as most refer to him as Mayor Pete now and that’s likely what they would do on stage, if they name him at all. I personally expect Biden to refer to him as “My little buddy.”

Who will get the most time to speak? On night one, Corey Booker dominated the speaking time, with Beto O’Rourke and Julian Castro getting plenty of time to debate each other. Joe Biden (7/4), as the front runner in the polls and the candidate with the least clear policy positions, leads the odds as well. Bernie Sanders (2/1) follows in second place, but having run in 2016 I wouldn’t expect him to get many questions. I would bet on one of the middle of the pack candidates, like Kamala Harris (11/2), Mayor Pete (11/2) or Yang (10/1), as they can be expected to get plenty of questions and also filibuster like Booker did to get their face on TV as much as possible.

Our final two props concern Joe Biden. Will Donald Trump, who’s currently traveling through Asia for the G20 conference, tweet about “Sleepy Joe” specifically? Odds are he won’t (2/11), which seems like a smart bet unless Biden specifically calls him out. Trump is sure to be watching though, so a bet that it will happen (13/4) isn’t out of the question.

Finally, will Joe Biden, who’s hounded for his tendency to get a little too close to people, hug any of the women on stage? There’s only three women on stage, and Biden will be alert to this perception, so odds favor he won’t (2/9). It would be fun to say that he might (11/4) bring Kirsten Gillibrand in for a big embrace, but she took out Al Franken, so it’s doubtful to happen.

Unfortunately, there are no odds on how many candidates will try to speak Spanish, so Marianne Williamson’s last minute cramming won’t matter to punters.


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