Canada’s political system is quite a bit different from the American one. We have a Prime Minister rather than a President, Senators aren’t elected by the people, and nothing happens unless the Supreme Beaver Council is fed three maple trees before Boxing Day.
I made that last part up, but if you didn’t know, Canada is due to have an election this year. It could happen at any time before or on October 21, 2019, and we don’t exactly know when, but it’s going to happen. With the polls all over the place, it’s a perfect time to look at the odds, care of Bodog.
We have three realistic candidates for the top job in Canada: Justin Trudeau (-120), Andrew Scheer (-110) and Jagmeet Singh (+1200). I only include Singh as a long shot, on the off chance the Liberals (Trudeau’s party, think of progressive but timid Democrats) get caught swearing fealty to Donald Trump and pissing off their base and swinging to the NDP (Singh’s party, think if Bernie Sanders had a party). The race is really between Trudeau’s Liberals and Scheer’s Conservatives (think of centrist Democrats), and the question comes down to how annoyed are Canadian’s with Trudeau?
Other than promote diversity, Trudeau doesn’t have a record anyone is happy with. Conservatives think he’s driving the country into ruin, and Liberals think he’s a pretty boy do-nothing, but better than the alternative. Depending on the day, polls swing multiple points between the Liberals and Conservatives, so it’s truly a toss-up.
What makes me side with Trudeau on this bet is the sheer mass of anti-conservative sentiment spun up by Conservative Ontario Doug Ford (brother of THAT Rob Ford), and a lack of enthusiasm for Scheer, who the Ottawa Citizen has basically said, has nothing going on.
Next, we have the question of if the winning party will an over/under on if the winning party will have 155 seats. I’m going with the over, bringing us to…
Will the winning party get a majority? To win with a majority (+200) takes 170 seats, which the Liberals currently have 177. I expect they’ll lose quite a few in a win, so bet on the minority here (-300).
Take all of this with a grain of salt, as it is very early. Canadian elections can come fast, and they can swing wildly. Your best bet is probably to take a look at these lines again once an election is actually declared and scheduled.
