Canadians go to the polls today to vote in federal elections. In one of the wilder election seasons most Canadians will probably remember, it’s been difficult at times to determine if the Liberal party, led by Prime Minister Justin Trudeau, will be able to hold onto their government, or if another party could surge past him to win. We’ll take a look at the polls and the odds to get you caught up.
As of October 18, the odds, care of Bodog, indicated that the most likely outcome of the election would be a Conservative minority, with a Liberal minority trailing slightly behind:
Exact outcome of the Canadian Federal Election (Bodog, October 18)
Conservative minority +120
Liberal minority +150
Liberal majority +500
Conservative majority +850
NDP minority +2000
Tie +4500
Green minority +25000
PPC minority +25000
As it is now Election Day, those odds are no longer available, but new polling might have changed the picture somewhat. Based on polls done over the weekend, Canadian national new outlet CBC now have a updated look at the two leading party’s chances, with the Liberals having a 48% chance of winning a minority government, and 37% for the Conservatives. The parties have a 13% and 2% chance of forming a minority specifically.
Should the Liberals win a minority, with the NDP expected to get 18.4% of the vote based on polling, they would become the kingsmakers in parliament, handing the Prime Ministership back to Trudeau.
Based on that polling data, popular political betting site PredictIt has Trudeau trading at $0.73 to be the Prime Minister when all is said and done, with Andrew Scheer, leader of the conservatives, trading at $0.30. That is a high for the liberal and a low for the conservative for the entire election period, so it appears a consensus is being reached.
PredictIt also has a minority government trading at $0.91, while a majority government is trading at $0.09. Anything other than a Liberal minority government would be a shock at this point.
But, with 338 members of the House of Commons seeking election and five parties running in most of the country, a lot could happen. Could the NDP pull away enough support from the Liberals to cause a conservative win? Could the PPC pull far right conservatives into their camp, handing Trudeau a big win? It’s very tough to say, making for a volatile election.
If you’re not looking to bet though, and maybe you’re voting in the election, you might be wondering how you should vote. We can’t really tell you; that depends on your principles and what matters to you. But here’s the two most embarrassing things Trudeau and Scheer have going for them, in case you’re interested:
Andrew Scheer might like milk a little too much:
https://twitter.com/RichardFeren/status/1186126116853030913
And Justin Trudeau was exposed for having attended Halloween in blackface in the past, causing Conan O’Brien to joke:
It's smart of Trudeau to hold the election before Halloween, I mean why even tempt yourself?
— Conan O'Brien (@ConanOBrien) October 17, 2019
If you don’t have a principled reason to vote for a specific candidate though, and you’re more the type to vote against either Trudeau or Scheer, then where your vote can best go to do that depends on your riding, and which party could help you do that. We recommend checking out 338canada’s full election map to understand what’s happening in your riding, and who has the best chance to win.
Finally, if you want to keep tabs on the election, CBC has great resources to stay up to date on the results, as well as the latest stories from election day.
