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EPL week 11 odds analysis: Man City face Arsenal; United travel to Chelsea

TAGs: Arsenal, Chelsea, English Premier League, Man City, Man Utd

A look ahead at all the odds for the 11th week of games in the English Premier League including top of the table clashes between Man City and Arsenal and Chelsea and Man Utd.

EPL Week 11 Odds Analysis: Man City face Arsenal; United travel to ChelseaAs is bog standard, let’s begin by taking a look at how we faired last weekend.

We knew that Man Utd would beat Spurs, everyone knew that Man City would beat West Brom, and Liverpool smashed Huddersfield as we predicted. We guessed that Arsenal would beat Swansea and that Leicester would beat Everton.

An injury-time equaliser for Crystal Palace made us look a little monkey like with our West Ham win prediction, Watford let us down at home to Stoke, and our gut instinct was off when we said Bournemouth would get the point off the champions. We thought Brighton would beat Southampton, and we thought Burnley would draw with Newcastle.

Let’s take a look at this weekend.

Fixtures in Full

Stoke v Leicester
Southampton v Burnley
Newcastle v Bournemouth
Huddersfield v West Brom
Swansea v Brighton
West Ham v Liverpool
Spurs v Crystal Palace
Man City v Arsenal
Everton v Watford
Chelsea v Man Utd

Stoke v Leicester

Stoke +160
Leicester +180
Draw +225

Mark Hughes has talked in the press about the importance of getting two consecutive wins under your belt, so, under normal circumstances, a home tie against a middle of the road team would do just nicely thank you very much.

But this isn’t ‘normal circumstances.’

Stoke have only registered one win in six Premier League ties between the pair, and none at the bet365 Stadium. When you couple that with the return to form of Riyad Mahrez and Jamie Vardy resulting in Leicester winning three consecutive games then it’s going to be a challenge I don’t think they’ll be up for.

Verdict – Leicester

Southampton v Burnley

Southampton – 160

Burnley +525

Draw +260

I believe this tie is a tough one to call, but the bookies don’t share my view. Southampton is the firm favourite to win this tie (-160), and I imagine that’s because they have won their last three home ties against Burnley in the Premier League and FA Cup.

But Burnley has never been in a better vein of Premier league form as they are experiencing right now. Their 1-0 win against Newcastle on Monday night means they sit in seventh place, and a defeat against Man City apart, are unbeaten in ten games.

Verdict – Draw
Newcastle v Bournemouth
Newcastle -105
Bournemouth +295
Draw +235

Newcastle is formidable at St James Park in the league this season. Only Spurs has turned up in their backyard and left with all three points, but Rafael Benitez’s side will be hurting after losing away at Burnley on Monday night.

Bournemouth has played well on occasions this season but still, find themselves in the bottom three. Their away form is partly responsible for their lowly position losing four times, with only an away win at Stoke to show for their travels.

Verdict – Newcastle
Huddersfield +170
West Brom +185
Draw +195

Now here is a tie that will not be at the front of the Match of the Day pecking order. Huddersfield has only scored seven goals this season, with just Bournemouth and Crystal Palace scoring fewer. But they do have that morale-boosting victory at home to Man Utd in their noggin. West Brom hasn’t won in nine, and they too have only scored nine goals this season.

Verdict – Draw
Swansea v Brighton
Swansea +135
Brighton +225
Draw +205

Another match to miss in favour of watching the Antiques Roadshow.

Swansea is in freefall losing three games on the trot, and five of their previous six. The Welsh side was always going to struggle after selling Gylfi Sigurdsson and Fernando Llorente, and their measly seven goals this season says it all. They also have the lowest shots (76) and lowest shots on target (20) stats in the Premier League.

Brighton is unbeaten in three with two draws and a big away win at West Ham, but they too find goals hard to come by, only scoring once in every nine attempts they have on goal.

Verdict – Swansea win
West Ham v Liverpool
West Ham +425
Liverpool =165
Draw +310

A last minute equaliser by Crystal Palace prevented West Ham from hosting Liverpool with two successive wins under the belt, so the Hammers have form on their side despite Slaven Bilic still being the favourite for the sack.

Liverpool has only lost once in eight games – a hammering against Spurs – but they have been scoring goals for fun with 14 in their previous four games.

West Ham has only lost once in six meetings between the pair in league and cup competition, but that was a 4-0 hammering at the London Stadium last season, and I believe that win for Liverpool will be fresh in everyone’s memories.

Verdict – Liverpool win
Spurs v Crystal Palac
Spurs -385
Crystal Place +1000
Draw +475

Crystal Palace is crap.

Spurs beat the Champions League winners in midweek.

Verdict – Spurs win
Man City v Arsenal
M
an City -260
Arsenal +650
Draw +395

Arsenal performs well against Man City, only losing to them once in their previous nine ties in all competitions, and will arrive at the Etihad on the back of fives games undefeated, including four wins.

But Man City is in a different league to every except Paris St Germain right now. Pep Guardiola’s side has begun the season unbeaten in 16 ties in all competitions, including a 100% record in the Champions League Group Stages.

City has scored 35 goals, and only conceded 6, and with the likes of Raheem Sterling and Leroy Sane helping out on the goal front, I can just see one winner in this one.

Verdict – Man City win
Everton v Watford
Everton +110
Watford +265
Draw +225

Everton has lost five games on the trot, and are winless in eight. If you believe Joey Barton they have a glorified PE teacher at the helm, and they have only scored seven goals all season while conceding 20 (only Palace has conceded more).

Watford arrives at Goodison Park after hitting a minor bump on their road to success with consecutive defeats against Chelsea and Stoke, but have ventured as far north as fourth position hence Everton’s interest in Marco Silva as a prospective Everton manager.

Verdict – Draw
Chelsea v Man Utd
Chelsea +145
Man Utd +205
Draw +210

This is a massive game for Jose Mourinho.

Man City has a five-point gap at the top of the Premier League, and with City facing one of the few sides capable of beating them in Arsenal, a United away win at Chelsea would be golden.

But that’s easier said than done.

United hasn’t won at Stamford Bridge since 2012 and has only beaten the Blues once in 13 attempts. That said, they are the form side going into this one having qualified for the Champions League in midweek with maximum points, and only losing once in the league.

In contrast, the defending champions have already lost three league games, and come into this one on the end of a tanning from Roma in midweek. It’s going to be difficult for Chelsea to break United down. Mourinho’s men have only conceded four goals all season, and 50% of them came in that shock defeat to Huddersfield.

Verdict – A draw

Premier League Table (Week 10)

  1. Man City – 28 pts
  2. Man Utd – 23
  3. Spurs – 20
  4. Chelsea – 19
  5. Arsenal – 19
  6. Liverpool – 16
  7. Burnley – 16
  8. Watford – 15
  9. Newcastle – 14
  10. Southampton – 13
  11. Leicester – 12
  12. Brighton – 12
  13. Huddersfield – 12
  14. Stoke – 11
  15. West Brom – 10
  16. West Ham – 9
  17. Swansea – 8
  18. Everton – 8
  19. Bournemouth – 7
  20. Crystal Palace – 4

Premier League Title Winning Odds (Courtesy of Bodog)

Man City -500
Man Utd +800
Spurs +1200
Chelsea +1800

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