Macau casino’s gross gaming revenue (GGR) continue to indicate signs of recovery despite posting an 8.5 percent slump in June, according to official data.
Statistics from Gaming Inspection and Coordination Bureau shows that Macau posted a MOP15.88 billion (US$1.99 billion) GGR in June – the lowest monthly tally of China’s premier gaming hub since September 2010, when the aggregate for such revenue was MOP15.30 billion [US$ 1.91 billion].
Friday’s data – which is the 25th consecutive month of year-on-year decline in casino GGR decline – was also within the 6 to 12 percent range of analysts’ expectations
“As was the case last year, June typically experiences some of the weakest ADR [average daily rate] numbers in the first half,” brokerage Sanford C. Bernstein Ltd said in a note it issued on Monday.
“Assuming an ADR of MOP470 million [US$58.8 million] to MOP550 million [US$68.83 million] for the remainder of this month, June GGR would be MOP15.4 billion [US$1.923 billion] to MOP15.7 billion [US$1.96 billion], representing a year-on-year decline of 10 percent to 11 percent, mostly in line with the 10 percent year-on-year decline in May,” said the Sanford Bernstein analysts.
In a separate note, Japanese brokerage Nomura predicted that it was expecting June to show a year-on-year fall in casino GGR between 9.5 percent and 11.8 percent.
“Month to date, daily GGR is MOP519 million [US$64.93 million], which is 14 percent lower than the year to date average of MOP605 million [US$ 75.70 million]. The weakness is due to low play volumes mid-week, coupled with occasionally low hold,” Nomura said.
For the first half of 2016, Macau’s GGR reflected an 11.4 percent contraction at MOP107.79 billion (US$13.49 billion) when measured year-on-year.
Figures regarding the market revenue split between VIP and mass-market gambling during the second quarter to June 30 are due to be issued on a different day. Judged on a month-to-month basis, June’s casino GGR fell by 13.6 percent.
On Thursday, credit-debt watcher Moody’s Investors Service warns that tough times to persist in Macau over the next three years amid falling gaming revenue.
“We expect that growth will continue to contract over our rating horizon of the next two to three years, although the pace of decline should slow,” said Moody’s in its annual credit analysis of Macau.