Lee Davy takes a look at a shorter than usual English Premier League fixture list and believes Swansea and Middlesborough are going to drift further into trouble, while Hull is about to float further away.
The FA Cup Semi-Finals means we have a condensed Premier League fixture list this weekend, making it a little softer on my fingertips.
With four of the top six teams featuring in those ties, the primary focus of this week’s odds analysis will feature on the fight to avoid the drop into the Championship.
Hull v Watford
Hull – 120
Watford +320
Draw +255
Hull is the favourite to win this tie, and for a good reason.
Not a single side has beaten one of Marco Silva’s teams at home in three years, and the KCOM Stadium has become one of the most difficult to visit in the entire division. Hull has won five of their previous six home games. Couple that to the fact that Watford hit the magical 40 points total with their victory over Swansea last weekend and you get the feeling the Hornets will lose a bit of their sting on this one.
My prediction: a Hull win
Swansea v Stoke
Swansea +115
Stoke +245
Draw +225
Swansea must beat Stoke at home if they are going to harbour hopes of avoiding a derby with Cardiff City next season.
Swansea’s form of late is dire, failing to win in their previous six games, losing five, and only scoring once. And when you are pinning your hopes on Fernando Llorente, a man who ran a total of 19.2 metres in 81 minutes of football in the defeat at Watford, hope does not spring eternal.
The only saving grace for Swansea – and I am clutching at straws – is Stoke are woeful on the road and are going to end the season, like every other season, sitting in the middle of the table playing Solitaire.
Stoke has only won three of their 16 away matches and have lost four of their last five in the league home or away. But they are coming off the back of a resounding win over Hull at the Brittania Stadium, and that would have given them a lift.
My prediction: a draw
Bournemouth v Middlesbrough
Middlesbrough hasn’t won a league game in 2017, and you can’t see them ending that run no matter who the opponent is. You don’t need to be a Match of the Day pundit to figure out Boro’s problems – they can’t score goals.
To have only managed 23 goals in 32 games is nothing short of diabolical, and with only one away win all season, it’s going to be a very long ride home for the fervent fans who make it to the South Coast.
Bournemouth has hit the same plethora of procrastination they experienced once they achieved safety last season. But with seven home wins in the bag, they will have too much pizzazz for Boro.
Bournemouth -125
Middlesbrough +335
Draw +260
My prediction: A Bournemouth win
West Ham v Everton
West Ham has managed to stop the rot, and save Slaven Bilic’s job, after picking up four points in their last two games after four defeats on the trot. But they were playing against Swansea and Sunderland, two sides likely to be spending the next few years tumbling down the divisions.
Everton, on the other hand, has only lost once in their past six games, and have won four, against much sterner opposition. In many ways, Everton of this season is performing in the same way West Ham was last season.
It’s a tricky tie to call, and so I am going to sit on the proverbial fence.
West Ham +220
Everton +115
Draw +250
My prediction: A draw
Burnley v Man Utd
I think Man Utd’s 22-match unbeaten run in the Premier League could be sorely tested at Turfmoor this weekend. With Man City having the weekend off it does give United the impetus to close the gap on them in the Champions League race, but I have a feeling all eyes will be on the Europa League Quarter Final tie against Anderlecht. Win or lose I am not sure they will be 100% prepared for a tough trip to one of the hardest working outfits in the country.
Burnley has only won one of their last six, and without their reliable home form, they would be in real trouble. Only Spurs, Everton, Chelsea, Liverpool, and Arsenal, have a better home form than Burnley. Flip that coin, and only Chelsea and Man City have better away form than Man Utd.
Burnley +550
Man Utd -190
Draw +290
My prediction – a draw.
Liverpool v Crystal Palace
I thought Crystal Palace was Championship fodder a few months ago, but Big Sam has turned things around with four wins from his last six, and boy did he need them with a backend of tough fixtures. Liverpool is also in excellent form; unbeaten in six, winning four of those, and I think they will have too much firepower for Palace.
My prediction: Liverpool win
Liverpool -200
Crystal Palace +550
Draw +335
Fixtures in Full
Hull v Watford
Swansea v Stoke
Bournemouth v Middlesbrough
West Ham v Everton
Burnley v Man Utd
Liverpool v Crystal Palace
Premier League Table
1. Chelsea – 75
2. Spurs – 71
3. Liverpool – 66
4. Man City – 64
5. Man Utd – 60
6. Arsenal – 57
7. Everton – 57
8. West Brom – 44
9. Southampton – 40
10. Watford – 40
11. Stoke – 39
12. Leicester – 37
13. West Ham – 37
14. Burnley – 36
15. Crystal Palace – 35
16. Bournemouth – 35
17. Hull – 30
18. Swansea – 28
19. Middlesbrough – 24
20. Sunderland – 21
To Be Relegated
Middlesbrough -3300
Swansea =175
Hull +140
