2016 Kentucky Derby Betting Preview

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Here’s a quick look at the field by post position with morning line Kentucky Derby horse racing odds. Unlike the 2015 Kentucky Derby where American Pharaoh’s was a favorite and absolute standout on paper, this year’s race figures to be wide open.

1 – Trojan Nation 15-1
2 – Suddenbreakingnews 16-1
3 – Creator 20-1
4 – Mo Tom 16-1
5 – Gun Runner 10-1
6 – My Man Sam 25-1
7 – Oscar Nominated 20-1
8 – Lani 30-1
9 – Destin 14-1
10 – Whitmore 50-1
11 – Exaggerator 8-1
12 – Tom’s Ready 50-1
13 – Nyquist 10-3
14 – Mohaymen 8-1
15 – Outwork 20-1
16 – Shagaf 25-1
17 – Mor Spirit 18-1
18 – Majesto 30-1
19 – Brody’s Cause 12-1
20 – Danzing Candy 25-1

Kentucky Derby Handicapping

When sitting down to the Kentucky Derby handicapping process, a horse player needs to ask themselves the following questions:

  1. Which horses truly belong in the race?
  2. Which horses look like they are bred to get the distance?
  3. Which horses have the fastest speed figures?
  4. Which horses have an improving pattern?
  5. Which horses might prefer an off-track?

Here’s the answer key:

  1. Gun Runner, Exaggerator, Nyquist, Mohaymen, Creator and Danzing Candy
  2. Creator, Gun Runner, Lani, Destin, Exaggerator, Mohaymen, Shagaf, Brody’s Cause
  3. Danzing Candy, Nyquist, Mohaymen, Exaggerator, Gun Runner
  4. Creator, Gun Runner, Whitmore,
  5. Creator, Exaggerator, Gun Runner

The Race Shape

2016 Kentucky Derby Betting PreviewKentucky Derby horse racing tips are only valuable if they give the recipients a clear picture of what to expect and why the Kentucky Derby horse racing tips make sense. With that in mind, let’s take a look at how this race figures to be run.

This year’s race came up short on speed. It might create a situation where a couple surprise horses might be sent to take advantage of a moderate pace, but only two horses have true gate speed. Nyquist is probably the best bet and figures to show some speed out of the 13-hole in order to gain the rail position over several pass pressers to the inside. That leaves Danzing Candy having to make the pace from the outside post. With Nyquist settling into stride towards the front, look for Gun Runner and Outwork to try to keep a little pressure on the front two in order to avoid letting them get away with a slow pace. Mohaymen, Whitmore and Exaggerator should settle about midpack with the rest of the field fighting for position at the back of the field.

On the backstretch, all eyes will be on the clock and Danzing Candy. If he sneaks away anywhere above 1:12 for three quarters, the field could be in trouble. Otherwise, Nyquist figures to be eased of the rail to challenge going into the far turn. The back markers will be hustling to move up, but figure to fall victim to a slow pace and congestion. Coming off the turn into the top of the stretch, Nyquist might start grinding as stalkers like Mohaymen, Gun Runner and Exaggerator make their moves. If speed is holding on Saturday, Danzing Candy could spirt clear. On a fair track, Gun Runner comes off the rail and makes a big. The only deep closer making ground figures to be Creator, but it’s too little too late. Gun Runner pulls away late with Danzing Candy second and Creator third.

How to Bet the 2016 Kentucky Derby

Using a $200 bankroll, there should be plenty of opportunities too make some good money on this race. With the chance of an off-track, the amount of $105 should be wagered on Exaggerator to win and a $5 exacta wheel with Exaggerator on top.

On a fast track, this is how this handicapper will play the race.

#60 win on Gun Runner

$20 win on Danzing Candy

$4 Exacta-Box on Gun Runner, Danzing Candy, Creator, Nyquist, Whitemore, Egaggerator

On race day, pay attention to how the track in playing. Historically, the track ends up hard and fast on Derby Day. If it rains early in the day and stops, be aware Churchill Downs has a reputation for drying out very quickly. Don’t assume it’s going to be an offtrack. Finally, have fun and enjoy the entire racing card.

This article is courtesy of Tony Samboras who is a keen international horse race handicapper.  Check out his blog to see a more detailed opinion on who has the best value when looking for Kentucky Derby horse racing picks.


views and opinions expressed are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of