Selection Sunday isn’t happening until March 15, 2015, giving everybody a little under two weeks to jam just about as much information in their heads to help determine what their March Madness brackets are going to look like. That whole process is madness in itself. That’s probably a big reason why everybody loves the whole spectacle of filling up those brackets.
If you want to get an early head start on your “bracketology” education, there are a number of ways to do so, including sifting through the title odds of each team to see the chances oddsmakers have put on their odds to win the national championship. Remember, these odds are likely to change over the next two weeks so consider these as more of a primer than flat-out gospel.
Looking at what its’ being offered, it appears that three college teams appear to be locked in as number one seeds. Unless something catastrophic happens, the Kentucky Wildcats and the Duke Blue Devils are shoo-ins for two of the four number one seeds. These two teams have the shortest odds with Kentucky the overwhelming favorite at even odds with Duke sitting at 8/1.
The Virginia Cavaliers are also expected to be a number one seed, thanks in large part to its number 2 ranking in both the AP Top 25 and the USA Today Coaches Poll. Looking at it from an odds point of view, the Cavaliers are also at 8/1 odds, exactly the same as that of the Blue Devils.
These three teams appear to be locks, but that final number four seed isn’t. That’s where the fun starts. In my head, there are four teams that have a legitimate claim to that final number one seed: the Arizona Wildcats, Wisconsin Badgers, Gonzaga Bulldogs, and Villanova Wildcats.
Of these four teams, Arizona and Wisconsin are considered the likeliest choices. Don’t even be surprised if both teams make it as the number one seed, bumping off the unheralded Cavaliers in that spot. Based on oddsmakers’ odds, the Arizona Wildcats and the Badgers are both sitting at 12/1 odds, followed by the Bulldogs at 14/1 and the Villanova ‘Cats at 16/1 odds.
Whatever happens, it’s unlikely that any of these teams fall below the number 2 seed come Selection Sunday. But if we’re really trying to nail it down to the four number one teams, I’d put Kentucky and Duke as shoo-ins, largely because both teams have proven to be the class of college basketball season.
I’m a huge fan of Cinderella stories like everybody else so I’d be thrilled to see the Virginia Cavaliers claim a number one seed too. The odds suggesting they have as much of a chance to win the national title as Duke puts them in that conversation.
As far as the fourth number one seed? I’m going against the grain – and oddsmakers – and pick Villanova to be that surprising fourth number one seed. It’s not as trendy as, say, Arizona or Wisconsin, but Villanova has beaten more nationally ranked teams than Arizona.
So give me Duke, Kentucky, Virginia, and Villanova as my four number one seeds as of this moment. Not that it matters because we still have conference championship games to look forward, but as of right now, these four teams are headlining my brackets.
