EPL week 35 odds analysis: Chelsea will slip up at Everton
Lee Davy takes a look at the weekend’s English Premier League action as we reach the business end of the competition and believes Spurs will close the gap to one point after Chelsea slip up at Everton.
We are nearing the end.
Pretty soon we will have nothing to do on a Saturday afternoon except spend time with the kids.
Let’s get to it.
Southampton v Hull
Southampton’s season died when they lost to Manchester United in the English Football League (EFL) final at Wembley. The Saints have finished 8th, 7th and 6th in the previous three seasons. They lost their manager twice and sold all of their best players during that time. So no matter what happens in the next five games, the fans, and the board will be happy, and this is Hull’s only glimmer of light.
Southampton has a pretty dismal home record, losing five and drawing four of their 15 appearances. But the Tigers turn into a bunch of pussy cats when they leave the KCOM cage.
Much has been said about Hull’s impressive home record under Marco Silva, but they are appalling on the road, only winning one game all season, and losing 14 of their 17 trips, with only Burnley fairing any worse.
My Prediction: A Southampton win.
Southampton -160
Hull +450
Draw +285
Stoke v West Ham
When you consider Slaven Bilic has been pilloried for much of the season and is still the second favourite to get the boot behind David Moyes at 7/2 (Moyes is 2/1), it’s worth pointing out with one of those green lasers that Mark Hughes and Stoke are only one point ahead.
The Potters have lost five of their previous six games, two of them at The Brittania, and have only picked up 7 points from 27 in their last nine games.
West Ham is unbeaten in three since their 3-0 thrashing at The Emirates, but you have to go back to 2013 for the last time West Ham beat Stoke in any competition.
Four of the last five games have ended in a stalemate, and that’s my prediction in a tie that means absolutely nothing.
My Prediction – A Draw.
Stoke +105
West Ham +265
Draw +235
Sunderland v Bournemouth
Sunderland will be relegated to the Championship if they fail to beat Eddie Howe’s men, and Hull and Swansea can avoid defeat against Southampton and Man Utd respectively, but I don’t think that is going to happen, so Moyes has one more week to pull off a Donald Trump.
Sunderland has only lost once to Bournemouth in the club’s history. But dig a little deeper, and you can see that they have only played each other nine times, and of the three games played in the modern era there has been a win, loss, and a draw.
Bournemouth has only won twice on the road. Sunderland has only picked up two draws in their last nine games, losing the other seven. It’s a tough one to call, but I think the entire core of Sunderland football club is feeling like a flounder.
My Prediction: A Bournemouth win.
Sunderland +195
Bournemouth +135
Draw +250
West Brom v Leicester
Leicester has only lost twice in eleven games in all competitions since Craig Shakespeare took over from Claudio Ranieri, and that was away at Arsenal and Atletico Madrid.
Shakespeare has written fresh new storylines for the Champions. They came close to making the Champions League Semi Finals, Jamie Vardy is back to his best, and yet they are still only six points clear of Swansea, who are drowning in the bottom three.
I don’t think Leicester will be relegated, but I don’t believe that they will get much change at The Hawthorns. West Brom are strong at home having won 9 of their 17 fixtures, and despite losing three games on the spin, two at home, I think they will provide stubborn opposition for the Foxes, and you will be watching this game last on Match of the Day come Saturday night.
My Prediction – A goalless draw.
West Brom +150
Leicester +185
Draw +230
Crystal Palace v Burnley
Well, do I really have to analyse this one?
Crystal Palace is in exceptional form, winning six of their past nine games to move away from the relegation zone James Bond ejector seat style.
Burnley, on the other hand, is two games away from going through the entire season without an away win. Add the fact that Burnley has only won once in their last 12 games, and is heading to the relegation zone like a meteor; there can only be one winner for me.
My prediction – A Crystal Palace win
Crystal Palace -135
Burnley +385
Draw +255
Everton v Chelsea
If Spurs have any chance of winning the league, then Everton have to beat Chelsea at Goodison Park, it’s as simple as that. I strongly believe if Chelsea comes away from Merseyside with three points they have won the league.
Everton is the surprise package of the season. They have won 12 of their home matches, drawn four and have only lost one. Only Chelsea and Spurs have a better home record.
But Chelsea has the best away record in the league having w
on 11 times on their travels, only suffering three defeats. Antonio Conte’s men have responded well since their defeat against Man Utd, beating Southampton and Spurs (FA Cup), and scoring eight goals.
Only Liverpool and Spurs have beaten Everton since December, and with Romelu Lukaku leading the Premier League goalscoring charts with 24, I get the feeling the young man will be working his socks off to show Chelsea that they should sign him in the summer.
My Prediction – Everton home win.
Everton +265
Chelsea Evens
Draw +255
Middlesbrough v Man City
Middlesbrough finally won a game in 2017 after beating Sunderland by a goal to nil in midweek, but they will be no match for a Man City side desperately searching for a Champions League place as Pep Guardiola comes to terms with a trophyless season.
This one is a no-brainer.
My Prediction – Man City away win.
Middlesboro +950
Man City -345
Draw +450
Spurs v Arsenal
Spurs has won eight Premier League games in a row, will they make it nine?
I think they will.
They reacted well to the FA Cup Semi-Final defeat against Chelsea, where I thought they were the better side. Christian Eriksen and Dele Alli are having the season of their lives, and Harry Kane is, well, Harry Kane.
Arsenal will feel good after disposing of Man City in that other Wembley showpiece, and they followed it up with a 1-0 home win against Leicester.
The last three games between this pair have been draws, and because Spurs play after the Chelsea game, I feel the result will have a big bearing on this match. If Everton gets a result, Spurs will be fired up, and as I think that will happen, I will go for Spurs in this one.
My Prediction – A Spurs win.
Spurs -120
Arsenal +300
Draw +280
Watford v Liverpool
Watford +500
Liverpool -195
Draw +330
Only Chelsea and the two Manchester clubs have a better away record than Liverpool. With Watford safely tucked away in the middle of the table, I fancy Liverpool to win this one at a canter.
My Prediction – A Liverpool away win.
Man Utd v Swansea
Man Utd -280
Swansea +800
Draw +390
Jose Mourinho sent his United side into the Etihad to grab a draw in midweek, and he got it. That tells me that he has either looked at Ajax, Lyon, and Celta Vigo and fancies his Europa League chances or he believes his team will make the difference up in the final five games of the season, and City will slip up.
Swansea will be fighting for their lives in this one, and they have won three of their last five games against The Red Devils, including twice at Old Trafford, but even an under-strength United side will be too much for Paul Clements’ team.
My Prediction – A Man Utd win.
Fixtures in Full
West Brom v Leicester
Southampton v Hull
Stoke v West Ham
Sunderland v Bournemouth
Crystal Palace v Burnley
Man Utd v Swansea
Middlesbrough v Man City
Everton v Chelsea
Spurs v Arsenal
Watford v Liverpool
Premier League Table
1. Chelsea – 78
2. Spurs – 75
3. Liverpool – 66
4. Man City – 65
5. Man Utd – 64
6. Arsenal – 60
7. Everton – 58
8. West Brom – 44
9. Southampton – 40
10. Watford – 40
11. Stoke – 39
12. Crystal Palace – 38
13. Bournemouth – 38
14. West Ham – 38
15. Leicester – 37
16. Burnley – 36
17. Hull – 33
18. Swansea – 31
19. Middlesbrough – 27
20. Sunderland – 21
