Lee Davy takes a look ahead of the weekend’s Premier League fixtures, including two sumptuous local derbies in Merseyside and the South Coast and much, much more.
The tepid international break has placed football fans all over the world into a slumber. It’s time to wake everyone up and what better way than to immerse them in the middle of the cyclone that is the English Premier League.
*Odds courtesy of Bodog
Liverpool v Everton
Liverpool – 155
Everton +425
Draw +290
Everton has been one of the surprise teams of the season. Ronald Koeman has shown he isn’t afraid to put his balls on the line by blooding a host of youngsters in his first season at the club and they haven’t let him down.
But the last time Everton faced a side of genuine quality they were beaten 3-2 at White Hart Lane, and that’s probably why the bookmakers have written off any hopes they have of winning at Anfield.
Liverpool is good value for money having won two and drawn one since their surprising loss to Leicester in February, and they will be looking to take advantage of Seamus Coleman’s broken leg and the controversy surrounding Romelu Lukaku’s refusal to commit his future to the club.
My Prediction – Liverpool home win.
Chelsea v Crystal Palace
Chelsea – 360
Crystal Palace +1100
Draw +450
Crystal Palace is four points clear of the drop zone after they finally found their winning way under the tutelage of the disgraced former England boss Sam Allardyce.
Palace has beaten Middlesbrough, Watford, and West Brom without conceding a goal in their past three matches, but facing Chelsea is like playing poker with your blind Grandma and then facing Phil Ivey.
It doesn’t matter how many stats you throw at this one, Chelsea will win because they are the better side and have home advantage.
My Prediction – Chelsea home win.
Man Utd v West Brom
Man Utd – 290
West Brom +850
Draw+385
A weakness of United is their inability to break down organised defences, and they don’t come more organised than Tony Pulis’s side. The Baggies will park the proverbial bus at Old Trafford and with players of the ilk of Zlatan Ibrahimovic, Ander Herrera, and Paul Pogba missing through suspension and injury I can see this tie ending in a drab stalemate.
West Brom bounced back from two crushing defeats against Crystal Palace and Everton to beat Arsenal at home in their last outing, but even without Chris Smalling and Phil Jones, who are also injured, I can’t see West Brom having what it takes to score more than one goal in this one.
My Prediction – A 1-1 draw.
Leicester v Stoke
Leicester Evens
Stoke +285
Draw +240
Leicester City has transformed their season since the unpopular sacking of Claudio Ranieri. The Champions have won all four games under the guidance of part-time manager Craig Shakespeare, including locking up a berth in the quarter-finals of the Champions League.
But there was a reason that Leicester slipped to the brink of the relegation zone before they looked in the mirror and woke the fuck up. Complacency. They got too big for their boots. They started to believe the hype. And this is why I think they will lose this game.
Stoke are a whatever side. Sometimes they turn up. Sometimes they don’t. And this is why Leicester will be approaching this game without the same fervent attitude that has seen them gather momentum.
My Prediction – Stoke away win.
Watford v Sunderland
Watford -120
Sunderland +475
Draw +295
What a must-win game for both sides.
Sunderland is odds on to go down, and if they are to achieve the unbelievable, they have to beat teams like Watford home or away. If they can get the ball to Jermaine Defoe, then they might have a chance.
Watford have failed to win in their past four games and will feel a little wobbly going into this one. I don’t think Sunderland have enough in their armoury to take all three points, but I sense a draw.
My Prediction – a Draw.
Burnley v Spurs
Burnley +450
Spurs -160
Draw+290
This will be a tough test for a Harry Kaneless Spurs. Burnley has won nine of their home games this season, and it’s only their home form that has stopped them from becoming embroiled in a relegation squabble.
Spurs are a decent side on the road, having won four and drawn six. The London club is unbeaten in six games, winning five of them. It’s a stark contrast compared to Burnley who have to go back to January to remember their last victory in all competitions, including an FA Cup loss to non-league Lincoln.
My Prediction – A Draw.
Hull v West Ham
Hull +145
West Ham +185
Draw +230
Marco Silva has done wonders since taking charge from Mike Phelan, but he moves into the business end of the season with his central midfield maestro Tom Huddlestone missing through suspension. It will be a significant loss for a Hull side who have only won once in their past four games including a mullering against Everton in their last game.
West Ham just can’t seem to pick up a run of form. They are the topsy-turvy team of the season, an entirely different picture than last season when they had their best Premier League run since its inception.
My Prediction – A Draw.
Southampton v Bournemouth
Southampton -165
Bournemouth +475
Draw +295
The South Coast derby is going to be one of the games of the weekend. There will be goals galore. Southampton has been involved in 31 goals in their last seven games, and Bournemouth 25.
It’s been quite a turnaround for Bournemouth. A few weeks ago, they were sliding towards the bottom three without a handbrake, but a battling draw at Old Trafford followed by successive home wins over West Ham and Swansea have seen them return to the security of a mid-table spot.
Southampton only leads Bournemouth by goal difference and have lost twice in their past three games, albeit against Man Utd and Spurs. It’s a tough one to call, and so I think I will sit on the fence and call a high scoring draw.
My Prediction – a high-scoring draw
Swansea v Middlesbrough
Swansea -110
Middlesbrough +315
Draw +230
This game represents a critical juncture in the season of both sides.
When Paul Clement took over from Bob Bradley, the Swans found their wings, largely in part to the goals headed into the opposition’s net by Fernando Llorente. But the Welsh side has been off point in recent weeks losing to Bournemouth and fellow strugglers Hull in the last two games.
Middlesbrough is in a tailspin. They are managerless, can’t stick the ball in the back of the net, and the bookies believe the new and untested Jonathan Woodgate might be the next gaffer.
Boro has only scored 20 goals all season, but they are pretty measly at the back. They performed well during their 3-1 defeat against Man Utd, and if they keep up that form, they could pinch a draw.
My Prediction – A low scoring draw.
Arsenal v Man City
Arsenal +205
Man City +125
Draw +260
It says something about Arsenal’s current woes that they are not the favourite in this tie. Take the FA Cup ties against non-league opposition out of the stew and you are left with a run of four defeats and 16 goals conceded.
In contrast, Pep Guardiola‘s side is undefeated in their last seven Premier League games. They have won 10 of 14 away games. And that’s why the bookies have them as favourites, and I’m inclined to agree.
My Prediction – A Man City away win.
Week 30 Fixtures
Liverpool v Everton
Chelsea v Crystal Palace
Man Utd v West Brom
Leicester v Stoke
Watford v Sunderland
Burnley v Spurs
Hull v West Ham
Southampton v Bournemouth
Swansea v Middlesbrough
Arsenal v Man City
Premier League Table
1. Chelsea – 69
2. Spurs – 59
3. Man City – 57
4. Liverpool – 56
5. Man Utd – 52
6. Arsenal – 50
7. Everton – 50
8. West Brom – 43
9. Stoke – 36
10. Southampton – 33
11. Bournemouth – 33
12. West Ham – 33
13. Burnley – 32
14. Watford – 31
15. Leicester – 30
16. Crystal Palace – 28
17. Swansea – 27
18. Hull – 24
19. Middlesbrough – 22
20. Sunderland – 20
