We are just days away from the first significant moment of the American 2020 election cycle: the Iowa Caucuses. After months of speculation, debates and polls, the first actual ballots will be cast, and we’ll finally know a bit more about who might face off against the President in November. Before the real action takes places, we’ll take one last look at the betting action with some help from Bodog and PredicIt.
Just to recap, the last time we took a look was immediately after the last debate (which sucked). At the conclusion of that debate, Elizabeth Warren was declared a winner by CNN after she implied Bernie Sanders was a misogynist liar, and Joe Biden seemed like the favorite to win the nomination. Biden’s PredictIt line to win the nomination was at $0.39, Sanders’ at $0.32 and Warren’s at $0.13. The only other candidate worth discussing was Pete Buttigieg who rested at $0.08.
A lot has changed since then, as Bernie Sanders has gone Super Saiyan. Warren’s accusations didn’t stick, and apparently neither has a controversial Joe Rogan endorsement. Bodog and PredicIt both now have Sanders as the clear favorite now to win both Iowa (-300, $0.63), New Hampshire (-450, $0.80) and Nevada ($0.65), and a slight favorite to win the overall nomination (+160, $0.41).
If you still have any faith left in Nate Silver, he’s cautioning that a heavy bet on Sanders still isn’t the wise move. Iowa is a tricky state to win, as it’s a caucus, and Joe Biden could still pull it out. And even if he does win the first three contests, While the first three contests look great for Sanders, Joe Biden has the odds to crush him in South Carolina ($0.74), and that leads into Super Tuesday on March 3, where it’s anybody’s guess what could happen from this far out.
By either the betting standard or by Fivethirtyeight’s forecast model, this looks like a clear fight between Sanders and Biden now, as polling models suggest only Buttigieg has a shot at beating either of the two in Iowa, and betting odds gives nobody but Buttigieg better than +900 to win either of the first two states over the frontrunners.
So the big question is, will Sanders knock out the first few states and quickly gain the momentum necessary to secure the nomination early, or will Biden, either by winning Iowa or by putting the brakes on in South Carolina, rally the centrist support he needs to win?
It looks like nothing could go wrong for Sanders at this point, but don’t count out the establishment machinery Biden could muster. While the odds favor Bernie, it looks like great time to bet on Uncle Joe.
