With just six men remaining in the U.S. Open Men’s Singles draw, there will be a new Grand Slam winner crown on Sunday. But with the tournament at the crucial quarter-final stage, who has the best chance of winning, and does betting on them represent good sportsbetting value?
The six men can be divided into two clear groups, with three favourites all either 10/3 or shorter and three outsiders all 14/1 or longer. Who should you be betting on from each group, in order to make money?
The Favourites
Of the three favourites, only Alexander Zverev (10/3) has so far made the semi-finals. The German youngster made heavy work of defeating Croatian Borna Coric, who took the first set 6-1 despite having been one of the players who caught COVID-19 around the time of the Adria Cup.
Zverev is a good pick having got to the semi-finals, but he is still erratic and faces a dogged opponent in the semis with Spanish player Pablo Carreno Busta (14/1) sure to be a tough challenge.
The other semi-final is highly likely to feature both the other favourites, Daniil Medvedev (7/4) and Dominic Thiem (11/5). Of the two men, we much prefer Medvedev, even at slightly shorter odds, purely because he has made the U.S. Open final before, losing last year in five epic sets against Rafael Nadal.
Thiem has never sealed a Grand Slam win and while this should be his best chance, having come into the quarter-finals as the highest-ranked player in the draw, we still have doubts about his game on hard surfaces. Back Medvedev at 7/4 as if he gets through the semi-final, he’ll never be that short again.
The Outsiders
When backing at outsider, it’s crucial to look at the path they would have to take to be victorious. Of the three men, we would avoid Carreno Busta purely because his semi-final opponent Zverev is the last person he would want to face playing the style he does.
Alex De Minaur is also a massive outsider to win the event outright at 28/1, but while we see Thiem winning through that game, we prefer to back Andrey Rublev at 16/1, despite him having to face his compatriot Daniil Medvedev in the quarters. That could be a leveller, and if Rublev does make it through, then he’ll have every chance of going all the way.
It might sound counter-productive to back both men when they will clash in the quarter-final itself, but Rublev at 16/1 and Medvedev at 7/5 represent great value and either man an take care of whatever comes his way later in the event if they win their all-Russian clash.
U.S. Open Remaining Games:
Quarter-Final #3
Andrey Rublev vs. Daniil Medvedev
Quarter-Final #4
Alex de Minaur vs. Dominic Thiem
Semi-Finals
Pable Carreno Busta vs. Alexander Zverev
Winner of QF1 vs. Winner of QF2
U.S. Open Men’s Singles Winner – Latest Odds:
Daniil Medvedev – 7/4
Dominic Thiem – 11/5
Alexander Zverev – 10/3
Pablo Carreno-Busta – 14/1
Andrey Rublev – 16/1
Alex de Minaur – 28/1
