The biggest game of the Bundesliga season takes place on Tuesday evening as Borussia Dortmund host Bayern Munich in a clash which could go a long way to deciding who wins the title.
With current champions Bayern Munich four points clear of their rivals, they know that a win away at their closest rivals would put them seven points clear with just six games remaining. Given how recent games have gone in the Bundesliga for Bayern, it would be an almost insurmountable lead for Dortmund to chase down.
So, can Dortmund win against their fiercest rivals, and the current seven-time consecutive Bundesliga champions at Signal Iduna Park without their famous fans? The ‘yellow wall’ of fans that won’t be there could be felt very keenly by a side who need all the inspiration they can get to triumph.
Munich are favourites going into the game, a shade under evens at around 10/11 generally, with Dortmund available at 5/2 or 13/5 across the board. The draw is around 10/3, and to us, that looks the best straight bet you can make. A stalemate is a great result for Munich and keeps their rivals at more than arm’s length, given them a four-point cushion heading into the final six games, five of which should be easy enough to win.
Dortmund, however, have to win. To do so, they’ll need to rely on the pace and creativity of Jadon Sancho and the deadly finishing prowess of Erling Braut Haaland. While the big names often score goals in big games, the first goalscorer is often from a set piece. Both Robert Lewandowski and Haaland are short odds, but Bayern’s shadow striker Serge Gnabry has had arguably the best season of his career and is available at 6/1 to open the scoring. He’s deadly from any second balls, and with set pieces potentially pivotal, we love his ods to find the back of the net first.
Of the players to score at any time, Julian Brandt is excellent value to net at any time, available at 9/2 to score. Brandt has gone under the radar despite some impressive performances this season, and those are generous odds for him to add to the seven goals he’s already scored this season.
Despite – or perhaps because of – the lack of crowds at Bundesliga games, there has been no shortage of tough tackles and in a such an important game, there are likely to be yellow cards here. Thomas Delaney was booked in both of the games played since lockdown, in the 53rd minute against Schalke and in the 55th minute against Wolfsburg. He’s been booked in 4 of the 8 games he’s played for Dortmund this season and really shouldn’t be 13/5 to see yellow again.
While backing goalscorers in such a tight game is fraught with danger, backing two strikers who love to hit the target and who will be desperate to score is a great idea. We’re not talking Lewandowski, as he’s so deadly that if you’re going with the bookies favourite, you’re really better off backing him to score, but Thomas Muller. Backing Muller and Haaland each to get a shot on target should be like shelling the proverbial pea, and at 6/4 (SkyBet) it seems like easy money.
Here’s a reminder of the five bets we like for the game:
The Draw – 10/3
Serge Gnabry to score first – 6/1
Julian Brandt to score at any time – 9/2
Thomas Delaney to be booked – 13/5
Muller and Haaland both to have a shot on target – 6/4
With BT Sport 1 showing the game in the U.K., the Bundesliga title decider in all but name could be the first very good match to be shown during lockdown. Enjoy it and bet responsibly.