We’re two episodes deep into the last season of Game of Thrones, and not much has happened yet. Everyone has gathered together in Winterfell, Brienne of Tarth got knighted by Jaime Lannister, and it appears the Night King is finally at the walls. Episode three looks to be the first big battle, and Bodog has odds for us on who will make it to the other end alive.
As always, if you want to avoid spoilers (and apologies for the ones I already snuck in), you can stop reading now.
Let’s start easy. It’s very unlikely that Jon Snow is done yet, so it’s favored he will see episode 4 (1/15). If you want to be on the long shot that he’ll somehow die (23/4), and he’ll have plenty of chances, you can, but it seems like a foolish thing to do.
While we’re at it, Arya probably won’t die either (1/10), simply because she has scores to settle in King’s Landing still. But if you think her last night was spent with Gendry, you can bet for a white walker to kill her off (21/4). Gendry is also available to bet on, and considering his freshly revealed (or reminded) bastard parentage, he’s unlikely to die as well (2/7), but then, how many king candidates can we have? Maybe he will die (5/2).
Let’s run through a few more that are pretty sure to live: The Hound still has the Cleganebowl ahead of him, so you can expect he’ll live (2/5 to live, 17/10 to perish). Brienne, fresh off her knighthood, seems likely to stick around (1/2 to live, 3/2 to perish). Finally, it would be frankly much too heartbreaking to see the last surviving Tarly, Samwell Tarly, die (1/5 to live, 3/1 to perish.
None of the odds favor someone to die, but there’s a few that stick out as more likely. Let’s start with Tormund “I suckled at a giant’s breast” Giantsbane, who is fantastic, but has played out his flirtation with Brienne enough by now (2/3 to live, 11/10 to perish). I think he’s a goner.
Another one that’s got nothing left to do, and has been put in perhaps the most dangerous spot in the battle, is Theon Greyjoy (10/17 to live, 13/10 to perish). Sansa was happy to see him, he’s regained his honor, now it’s time to die Theon.
It would be great to see Jaime Lannister confront his sister one more time, but we’ve already seen it. I would expect him to be a goner now too, seeing that he knighted Brienne and closed that story (1/2 to live, 3/2 to perish).
We end with Daenerys Targaryen…’s advisors. Sorry, no odds for the queen, she’s pretty sure to live.
The two with odds are Jorah Mormont (2/3 to live, 11/10 to perish) and Davos Seaworth (1/2 to live, 9/4 to perish). Even if both die, Dany still has Tyrion, Varys and probably Jon Snow to advise her. If I had to pick one to live, it would probably be Jorah simply because of how long he’s been with the queen, but a culling of the herd looks to be in order here.