Another look at the odds for the weekend Premier League fixtures including a Manchester derby that could result in a title win for City, and a look at the eight clubs in with a shout of relegation.
Man City v Man Utd
Man City 17/20
Man Utd 3/1
Draw 13/5
I feel confused about the Manchester derby this weekend. It should be a must watch match. If City can beat United, they win the title in front of their adoring faithful while making the old enemy look like the prawn sandwich munchers they are.
But does it matter?
To the City fans, yes.
But the rest of us?
City has been so dominant (nobody has won the title in Week 33, not even a Sir Alex Ferguson side), that if they fail to beat United, it’s only a matter of when and not if, so who cares?
Not me.
City will get the three points they need to win the title, and we can all focus on the most exciting aspect of the 2017/18 Premier League season, and that’s who will end up leaving it.
The Relegation Battle
With six matches left, here are the teams I believe have weak batteries and are one or two games away from conking out.
Stoke
Brighton
Huddersfield
West Brom
Swansea
Crystal Palace
Southampton
West Ham
Managerless West Brom is a lost cause. There is more chance of a starfish leading Brighton to the Premier League title than the Baggies remaining in the top division.
That leaves seven teams trying to avoid two spots.
Let’s begin with the two teams that are currently in those seats.
Stoke v Spurs
Stoke 8/1
Spurs 1/3
Draw 17/4
If Stoke survives, it won’t be through wins against the likes of Spurs. Stoke still have West Ham, Crystal Palace and Swansea to face in the next six games, and those results will determine Stoke’s fate.
Stoke has lost the previous four Premier League ties against Spurs, conceding 17 goals and only scoring one in return. I sense another mauling.
Verdict – Spurs win
Stoke’s Remaining Games
West Ham (A)
Burnley (H)
Liverpool (A)
Crystal Palace (H)
Swansea (A)
Arsenal v Southampton
Arsenal 8/15
Southampton 5/1
Draw 10/3
I fear for Southampton’s future as a Premier League club, and that’s such a shame considering how brilliant they have been over the past 3-4 seasons. Outside of Leicester winning the league, the Saints have been the one side that has consistently punched above its weight. The club is running out of breath.
I think it was a mistake to part with Mauricio Pellegrino with so few games left until the end of the season. Mark Hughes has no time to bed his philosophy into the DNA of the club, and let’s not forget, Stoke sacked him because they didn’t trust that he could keep them in the Premier League.
If they fail to beat Arsenal (and they will) they are going to have to find points against Chelsea, Leicester, Bournemouth and Everton before entertaining Man City on the last day of the season.
Arsenal is in fine form winning all four ties since losing to Brighton at the beginning of March, including dumping AC Milan out of the Europa League. The Gunners will aim, fire and shoot the halo right off the heads of the Southampton players.
Verdict – Arsenal win.
Southampton’s Remaining Games
Chelsea (H)
Leicester (A)
Bournemouth (H)
Everton (A)
Man City (H)
Brighton v Huddersfield
Brighton 17/20
Huddersfield 12/5
Draw 15/4
What a great match this is for the two newest members of the Premier League.
Brighton is currently sitting in 13th place, but with Spurs, Burnley, Man Utd and Liverpool, popping up on the fixture calendar between now and the end of the season, winning this tie, and next week’s tussle with Crystal Palace is essential. Losing your last three matches without scoring a goal doesn’t help.
Brighton’s Remaining Games
Crystal Palace (A)
Spurs (H)
Burnley (A)
Man Utd (H)
Liverpool (A)
Huddersfield has a similar problem. After the Brighton game and a home tie against Watford, the Terriers finish the season facing Chelsea, Everton, Man City and Arsenal. David Wagner’s side is winless in four, and have failed to find the net in each of those ties.
Verdict – Brighton win
Huddersfield’s Remaining Games
Watford (H)
Chelsea (A)
Everton (H)
Man City (A)
Arsenal (H)
WBA v Swansea
West Brom – 7/5
Swansea – 11/5
Draw – 21/10
After Carlos Carvahal turned Swansea into a rocket and shot them into the middle of the table, he seems to have run out of fuel. A goalless draw at Huddersfield was followed by an FA Cup defeat at the hands of Spurs, and then another loss away at Old Trafford. Or maybe, I am a little hard on the Welsh side. Spurs and Man Utd are top teams.
Right or wrong, Carvahal’s Swansea side has to win this game. If they don’t, they will enter a run of fixtures against Everton, Man City and Chelsea with confidence as low as an ant limbo beam. Fortunately, West Brom is bobbins and managerless, so the odds are in their favour.
Verdict – A Swansea win.
Swansea’s Remaining Games
Everton (H)
Man City (A)
Chelsea (H)
Bournemouth (A)
Stoke (H)
Bournemouth v Crystal Palace
Bournemouth 6/4
Crystal Palace 15/8
Draw 23/10
Crystal Palace looked like they were out of this mess after Wilfried Zaha’s return to the side coincided with a decent run of form, but they’ve slipped back into the mire of late.
Palace has only lost one of their five Premier League encounters with Bournemouth, and with Eddie Howe’s side with nothing to play for; I expect Palace to get at least a point in this one.
Looking at Palace’s remaining fixtures they have the most comfortable run-in of all the teams and should be fine.
Crystal Palace’s Remaining Games
Brighton (H)
Watford (A)
Leicester (H)
Stoke (A)
West Brom (H)
Chelsea v West Ham
Chelsea 1/4
West Ham 11/1
Draw 5/1
West Ham has beaten Chelsea twice in their previous three encounters so despite the gulf in odds the Hammers could pull off a shock, but I don’t think so. The current team that David Moyes leads is running on wafer-thin confidence. The club is in turmoil. And despite Chelsea going through a yo-yo period I still believe they will too strong for West Ham at home.
The Hammers are another side that has an awful run-in facing Arsenal, Man City, Leicester and Everton, making their home tie against Stoke a must-win game for them.
West Ham’s Remaining Games
Stoke (H)
Arsenal (A)
Man City (H)
Leicester (A)
Everton (H)
Here are the rest of the fixtures in full.
Fixtures in Full
Everton v Liverpool
Stoke v Spurs
Watford v Burnley
Brighton v Huddersfield
WBA v Swansea
Bournemough v Crystal Palace
Leicester v Newcastle
Man City v Man Utd
Arsenal v Southampton
Chelsea v West Ham
Premier League Table
1. Man City – 84
2. Man Utd – 68
3. Liverpool – 66
4. Spurs – 64
5. Chelsea – 56
6. Arsenal – 51
7. Burnley – 46
8. Leicester – 43
9. Everton – 40
10. Bournemouth – 37
11. Watford – 37
12. Newcastle – 35
13. Brighton – 34
14. West Ham – 33
15. Swansea – 31
16. Huddersfield – 31
17. Crystal Palace – 30
18. Southampton – 28
19. Stoke – 27
20. West Brom – 20
Relegation Odds
West Brom 1/500
Stoke 2/7
Huddersfield 11/10
Southampton 11/10
Swansea 6/1
Crystal Palace 7/1
West Ham 10/1
Top 4 Odds
Man Utd 1/100
Liverpool 1/33
Spurs 1/33
Chelsea 10/1
