Will Macau’s gross gaming revenue (GGR) for February be robust or will it be a bust?
International analysts are apparently divided on whether Macau casino will be able to pull another double-digit growth this month after a better-than-expected January GGR.
On Thursday, Japanese credit debt watcher Nomura and investment brokerage Morgan Stanley have expressed optimism that Macau’s February casino revenue will grow more than 10 percent.
Analysts from Nomura predicted that Macau’s GGR will climb 15 percent this month on the back of the expected opening of the HKD27 billion ($3.45 billion) MGM Cotai.
MGM China Holdings Ltd. has decided to defer its January 29 grand opening to February 13, just three days before the Chinese New Year holiday period.
For its part, the Macau’s Gaming Inspection and Coordination Bureau (DICJ) approved the allocation of more than 100 new-to-market live dealer gaming tables and some 900 slot machines at the Cotai resort.
“We expect daily GGR of approximately MOP950 million to MOP955 million for February, or up around 15 percent,” Nomura said, according to GGRAsia. “We expect above-average growth in February this year, given the expected opening of MGM Cotai mid-month.”
Like Nomura, Morgan Stanley was also feeling confident about Macau’s GGR growth story this month.
Morgan Stanley analysts Praveen Choudhary and Jeremy An forecast Macau’s GGR will grow 16 percent in February, citing the survey they conducted on hotel bookings.They said that their data suggested high visitation from strong hotel bookings and rising rates for most hotels during the upcoming Chinese New Year holiday celebration, which runs from February 15 to 21.
“We expect 16 percent year-on-year total GGR growth for 2018 and 19 percent year-on-year for the first quarter of 2018, driven by visitation growth potential from lower tier [mainland China] cities, new supply (MGM Cotai and Morpheus) and infrastructure improvement,” the brokerage said.
Deutsche Bank analysts, however, were a bit skeptical on whether the Chinese New Year holiday would provide enough fire power to sustain a growth rate beyond 10 percent.
Analysts Carlo Santarelli and Danny Valoy believed that casino GGR for February would decelerate to 2.8 percent even if the Chinese New Year festivities have fallen this month.
“While Chinese New Year generates a lot of hype, the month around the holiday has often tended to bring about disappointment as the periods into and post the holiday tend to offset the primarily mass strength during the holiday,” the Deutsche Bank analysts said.
