Andrew Luck should be back on Monday, but the Indianapolis Colts are carrying some baggage – specifically, a bad game from their receivers in Week 12 and an iffy track record on the betting lines in games against the New York Jets.
Odds courtesy of OddsShark.com
The Colts are expected to be favored on the road against the Jets in the Monday Night Football matchup, based on a consensus of betting lines. While the Jets are going nowhere fast this season, they are both 7-2 against the spread in their last nine games against Indianapolis as well as 6-0-1 ATS in their last seven games in December.
The Colts, who are 5-6 straight up and 5-5-1 ATS, should have Luck back after he missed their November 25 loss against the Pittsburgh Steelers due to a concussion. Wide receiver T.Y. Hilton has struggled in matchups against Jets CB Darrelle Revis, but Revis’ play has tailed off this season.
With the Jets’ love of eight-man defensive fronts, it will be imperative for Hilton, Phillip Dorsett and Donte Moncrief to be sharp and not be plagued by drops. The latter was the case against Pittsburgh.
Indianapolis has allowed the second-most sacks in the NFL. With C Ryan Kelly (shoulder) back, there should be a more cohesive blocking effort in front of RB Frank Gore (15 rushes for 28 yards last week). The Colts are 10-4 ATS in their last 14 games on a Monday.
The Jets are 3-8 SU and 4-6-1 ATS. The biggest question mark is how engaged the Jets will be now that they are out of contention. Sticking with QB Ryan Fitzpatrick has led them to have one of the NFL’s poorest passing attacks. However, both WR Quincy Enunwa and WR Brandon Marshall should have favorable matchups.
While the Colts expect to have CB Vontae Davis in the lineup, it’s looking doubtful that OLB Robert Mathis (biceps) will be able to play. If Mathis is out, that could hurt the Colts’ ability to contain RB Matt Forte. Forte’s receiving skills could also be a headache for the Colts, provided that the Jets execute.
Given both teams’ issues with pass defense, it could be a high-scoring game. Luck is much less mistake-prone than Fitzpatrick, and more capable of producing a quick score.
The total has gone over in five of the Colts’ last seven games against the Jets. The total has also gone over in six of the Colts’ last eight games on the road against teams with losing records.