November Nine odds and ICM calculations are circulating around the Internet, as the clock counts down to the finale of the greatest poker tournament on the planet.
Who do you think will win the World Series of Poker (WSOP) Main Event?
Poker is one of the least popular markets in a sports book, but the November Nine does have that Grand National or Superbowl feel to it.
It’s a unique event that only comes around once a year. This mean most poker fans will be tuned into the coverage, and having a little sweat makes all the difference.
A number of betting outlets have released prices, on both sides of the pond, and as you would expect the betting form generally runs in line with the chip stacks, with the exception of the anomaly that is Martin Jacobson.
The London based Swede, which means if he wins $10m he will actually win $10m, is the most experienced, and successful, live tournament player in the field, and that’s been recognized by his price.
Here is the line released by Carbon Sports:
Jorryt van Hoof +250
Felix Stephensen +350
Mark Newhouse +400
Andoni Larrabe +700
Dan Sindelar +700
William Pappconstantinou +1000
William Tonking +1200
Martin Jacobson +750
Bruno Politano +1500
Here are the odds from Bet365
Jorryt van Hoof – 13/5
Felix Stephensen – 7/2
Mark Newhouse – 9/2
Andoni Larrabe – 7/1
Dan Sindelar – 7/1
Martin Jacobson – 8/1
Will Pappaconstantinou – 10/1
William Tonking – 12/1
Bruno Politano – 16/1
A reminder of the chip counts:
1st. Jorryt van Hoof – 38,375,000 (96bb)
2nd. Felix Stephensen – 32,775,000 (82bb)
3rd. Mark Newhouse – 26,000,000 (65bb)
4th. Andoni Larrabe – 22,550,000 (56bb)
5th. Dan Sindelar – 21,200,000 (53bb)
6th. William Pappconstantinou – 17,500,000 (44bb)
7th. William Tonking – 15,050,000 (37bb)
8th. Martin Jacobson – 14,900,000 (37bb)
9th. Bruno Politano – 12,125,000 (30bb)
When the action starts the blinds will begin at 200,000/400,000 with a 50,000 ante, and that gives everyone at the final table enough play before the shoving starts.
If you have been in poker long enough then you will understand that anyone of the final nine can win this thing. A bit of fortune here, a lucky suckout there and before you know it you could have blown it or won it all.
With this in mind players are more inclined to do ICM chops when they reach the latter stages of the final table. The WSOP do not allow any form of deal making at their final tables, but this doesn’t stop the players from brokering deals as long as they are away from the table, and the glare of the ESPN spotlight.
So what would the ICM chop look like? Here are the official payouts with their ICM counterparts alongside.
Payouts & ICM Calculations
1st. $10,000,000 – $4,334,801
2nd. $5,145,968 – $3,987,522
3rd. $3,806,402 – $3,515,901
4th. $2,848,833 – $3,248,720
5th. $2,143,174 – $3,138,263
6th. $1,622,080 – $2,815,884
7th. $1,235,862 – $2,584,272
8th. $947,077 – $2,569,563
9th. $730,725 – $2,285,195
With such a big difference between spots, especially when you get closer to the finishing line, would an ICM deal be the right approach, or do you just go for this once in a lifetime opportunity to win a huge sum of cash, safe in the knowledge that you have already locked up a huge score?
It’s an interesting debate.
Players like Newhouse, van Hoof and Jacobson are well known for playing in big games, and for these three the scent of a deal may not smell that flowery, and from the angle of the fan, let’s hope that no deals are struck because it will increase the tension, and excitement, when the action gets underway in November.
Another reason to avoid a pre November Nine ICM pow-wow is the Dan Colman effect. What would happen if the nine agreed a deal, one of them caught a case of the moral malaise that Colman caught, and then they decided to not show up?
Now that would be a story.
